Fertility rebound and economic growth. New evidence for 18 countries over the period 1970-2011.

Lechman, Ewa and Dominiak, Piotr and Okonowicz, Anna (2014): Fertility rebound and economic growth. New evidence for 18 countries over the period 1970-2011.

Abstract

Long-run impact of economic growth on fertility trends is ambiguous and sensitive for in-time variations. Over last decades, economic growth has led in many countries to significant falls in total fertility rates. However, recently, in high-income economies a kind of “fertility rebound” is revealed [Goldstein 2009; Luci and Thevenon, 2011; Day 2012]. The concept of fertility rebound supports the hypothesis that reversal trends in total fertility rates are mainly attributed to economic growth. Our paper unveils the relationship between total fertility rate changes and economic growth in 18 selected countries with fertility rebound observed, over the period 1970-2011. We anticipate uncovering U-shaped impact of economic growth on total fertility rate. To report on the relationship we deploy longitudinal data analysis assuming non-linearity between examined variables. Data applied are exclusive derived from World Development Indicators 2013. Our main findings support the hypothesis on U-shaped relationship between total fertility rate and economic growth in analyzed countries in 1970-2011. Along with the previous we project the minimum level of GDP per capita when the fertility rebound takes place.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: fertility rate, fertility rebound, economic growth, panel data analysis.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C23 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J0 - General; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O10 - General

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