Προσδιοριστικοί Παράγοντες της Εθνικής Αποταμίευσης κατά την περίοδο 1990-2010 και μέτρα ενίσχυσης της Οικονομικής Ανάπτυξης.

Tsermenidis, Konstantinos (2014): Προσδιοριστικοί Παράγοντες της Εθνικής Αποταμίευσης κατά την περίοδο 1990-2010 και μέτρα ενίσχυσης της Οικονομικής Ανάπτυξης.

Abstract

Η Εθνική Αποταμίευση κατά την περίοδο της εικοσαετίας 1990-2010 εμφανίζεται συνεχώς μειούμενη. Οι αιτίες αυτού του φαινομένου μπορούν να εντοπιστούν τόσο στα συστατικά της, όσο και σε άλλους παράγοντες οι οποίοι συντέλεσαν στην εικόνα αυτή. Προβαίνοντας σε μια μελέτη άλλων χωρών της Ευρωζώνης, αρχικά εντοπίζουμε κάποιους από τους παράγοντες οι οποίοι συνδέονται με τα επίπεδα της αποταμίευσης και στη συνέχεια με μια συγκριτική ανάλυση με την Ελλάδα, αναδεικνύουμε κάποιες από τις αιτίες της πορείας αυτής. Εστιάζοντας στην Ελλάδα, εντοπίζουμε τα Εισοδήματα από την Αλλοδαπή και το Ισοζύγιο Μεταβιβάσεων, ως παράγοντες βαρύνουσας σημασίας στην πορεία της Εθνικής Αποταμίευσης, κάνοντας τη διάκριση μεταξύ αυτής και της Εγχώριας. Έχοντας στη συνέχεια υπόψη τους εξωτερικούς αυτούς παράγοντες από τη μία και την Εγχώρια Αποταμίευση από την άλλη, επιχειρούμε μία ανάλυση της επίδρασης αυτών των παραγόντων στην Ανάπτυξη. Τα κύρια ευρήματα της μελέτης μας είναι ότι τα επίπεδα της Εθνικής αποταμίευσης στην Ελλάδα μπορούν να αιτιολογηθούν μέσα από ένα υπόδειγμα βασισμένο σε χώρες της Ζώνης του Ευρώ χρησιμοποιώντας ως παραμέτρους τις Εξαγωγές, τον Πληθωρισμό, τη μεταβολή των Δαπανών της Γενικής Κυβέρνησης και την ίδια την Ανάπτυξη. Επιπλέον, με το πέρας των ετών, ενώ η Εθνική Αποταμίευση συγκριτικά με τις υπόλοιπες χώρες είναι σαφώς μεγαλύτερη της Εγχώριας, υπονοώντας την επίδραση των στοιχείων της Εθνικής αποταμίευσης που σχετίζονται με το εξωτερικό, δηλαδή των Εισοδημάτων και των Μεταβιβάσεων, στο τέλος της εικοσαετίας παρατηρείται μία ταύτιση των δύο εξαιτίας της εξάλειψης αυτών των εξωτερικών παραγόντων. Εστιάζοντας στη συνέχεια σε αυτούς τους παράγοντες και συνδέοντας τους με την ανάπτυξη, βρίσκουμε θετικές επιδράσεις σε αυτήν τόσο από την Εγχώρια Αποταμίευση, όσο και από τα Εισοδήματα και τις Μεταβιβάσεις. Τα θετικά παρ' όλα αυτά οφέλη για την ανάπτυξη από μία θετική μεταβολή αυτών των παραγόντων, μπορεί να μην είναι ορατά παρά μόνο από το τρίτο έτος της μεταβολής. Μολονότι οι εξωτερικοί παράγοντες έχουν πλέον σχεδόν εξαλειφθεί, σημαντικό είναι το γεγονός ότι και η Εγχώρια Αποταμίευση από μόνη της μπορεί να ωφελεί την Ανάπτυξη. Τα αποτελέσματα παρ' όλα αυτά, θα πρέπει να ληφθούν υπόψη με επιφύλαξη, κυρίως εξαιτίας του μικρού μεγέθους του δείγματός μας, αλλά και πιθανού σφάλματος των υποθέσεων που κάναμε στην εφαρμογή των υποδειγμάτων.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: The Determinants of National Savings in Greece during the period 1990-2010 and Measures for Economic Growth.
• Language: Greek
• Keywords: national savings; growth; income from abroad; net transfers from abroad; εθνική αποταμίευση; ανάπτυξη; εισοδήματα από την αλλοδαπή; ισοζύγιο πληρωμών
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E21 - Consumption ; Saving ; Wealth; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies; H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O43 - Institutions and Growth; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth ; Aggregate Productivity ; Cross-Country Output Convergence; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O49 - Other

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