An Econometric Analysis of Population Change in Arkansas

Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. and Ramirez, David A. and Walke, Adam G. (2013): An Econometric Analysis of Population Change in Arkansas. Published in: Oxford Journal , Vol. 9, No. 1 (11 April 2014): pp. 28-40.

Abstract

This study models and forecasts the components of population growth in Arkansas through 2017. A structural econometric model is developed and used to generate ex-ante forecasts. The model includes equations for births, deaths, and net migration. These three variables, in combination with population in the previous year, are used to estimate current-year population. Births and deaths are found to contain strong inertial components and to follow national demographic trends. Net migration also contains an inertial component and is affected by labor market conditions in Arkansas relative to those of the United States as a whole. One contribution of the paper is the selection of model functional form based upon deviance information criterion. Furthermore, results of out of sample simulations indicate that the modeling approach employed can potentially handle both the cyclical and the structural factors that typically affect regional population change. The results shed light on demographic dynamics in a relatively understudied region of the United States.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Population Economics, Regional Economics, Applied Econometrics
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R11 - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

References

Becker, G.S. (1960), “An economic analysis of fertility”, in Universities National Bureau Committee for Economic Research (Ed.), Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, pp. 209-231.

Bennett, D.G. (1970), “Population change and mobility: a case study of an Arkansas state economic area”, Land Economics, Vol. 46 No. 2, pp. 206-208.

Booth, H. (2006), “Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review”, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 22 No. 3, pp. 547-581.

Clark, D. and Murphy, C. (1996), “Countywide employment and population growth”, Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 36 No. 2, pp. 235-256.

Corden, W.M. and Findlay, R. (1975), “Urban unemployment, intersectoral capital mobility and development policy”, Economica, Vol. 42 No. 165, pp. 59-72.

Davies, P.S., Greenwood, M.J. and Li, H. (2001), “A conditional logit approach to U.S. state-to- state migration”, Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 41 No. 2, pp. 337-360.

Fisher, P.G. and Hallett, A.J.H. (1988), “Iterative techniques for solving simultaneous equation systems: a view from the economics literature”, Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, Vol. 24 Nos. 1-2, pp. 241-255.

Fullerton, T.M. Jr. and Barraza de Anda, M. (2008), “Borderplex population modeling”, Migraciones Internacionales, Vol. 4 No. 3, pp. 91-104.

Garg, A. (2013), “Arkansas”, IHS Global Insight US Markets State Economies South, June, pp. 39-48.

Harris, J. R. and Todaro M.P. (1970), “Migration, unemployment, and development”, American Economic Review, Vol. 60 No. 1, pp. 126-142.

Hernandez-Murillo, R., Ott, L.S., Owyang, M.T., and Whalen, D. (2011), “Patterns of interstate migration in the United States from the survey of income and program participation”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Vol. 93 No. 3, pp. 169-186.

Jones, L.E. and Tertilt, M. (2006), “An economic history of fertility in the U.S.: 1826-1960”, working paper no. 12796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, December.

Jones, L.E., Schoonbroodt, A. and Tertilt, M. (2008), “Fertility theories: can they explain the negative fertility-income relationship?” working paper no. 14266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, August.

Krieg, R.G. (1991), “Human-capital selectivity in interstate migration”, Growth and Change, Vol. 22 No. 1, pp. 68-76.

Lim, J. (2011), “Does wage differential driven migration continue to exist? Tests on the role of regional economic structure in wage differential driven migration”, Annals of Regional Science, Vol. 47 No. 1, pp. 213-233.

Montgomery, M. (2013), “Employment”, IHS Global Insight US Economic Outlook, June, pp. 81-85.

Pindyck, R.S. and Rubinfeld, D.L. (1998), Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts, McGraw Hill Companies, Boston, MA.

Plaut, T.J. (1981), “An econometric model for forecasting regional population growth”, International Regional Science Review, Vol. 6 No. 1, pp. 53-70.

Schultz, T.P. (2005), “Fertility and income”, working paper no. 925, Economic Growth Center, Yale University, New Haven, CT, October.

Shbikat, G. and Striffler, S. (2000), “Arkansas migration and population”, Arkansas Business and Economic Review, Vol. 33 No. 3, pp. 1-5.

Smith, S.K. (1997), “Further thoughts on simplicity and complexity in population projection models”, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 13 No. 4, pp. 557-565.

Smith, S.K., Tayman, J. and Swanson, D.A. (2001), State and Local Population Projections Methodology and Analysis, Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers, New York, NY.

Spiegelhalter, D.J., Best, N.G., Carlin, B.R. and van der Linde, A. (2002), “Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Vol. 64 No. 4, pp. 583-616.

Tayman, J. and Swanson, D.A. (1996), “On the utility of population forecasts”, Demography, Vol. 33 No. 4, pp. 523-528.

U.S. Census Bureau Population Division (2012), “Projected population by single year of age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for the United States: 2012 to 2060”, available at: http://www.census.gov/population/projections/files/downloadables/NP2012_D1.csv (accessed 10 September 2013).

Xiao, N., Zarnikau, J. and Damien, P. (2007), “Testing functional forms in energy modeling: an application of the Bayesian approach to U.S. electricity demand”, Energy Economics, Vol. 29 No. 2, pp. 158-166.