Bentour, El Mostafa (2013): Oil prices, drought periods and growth forecasts in Morocco. Published in: International Journal of Economics and Management Science , Vol. 3, No. 1 (22 February 2014): pp. 1-12.
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Abstract
The Moroccan economy suffers deeply from two exogenous shocks: high oil prices and drought periods. The irregular rainfall and instability of oil prices increase the volatility of economic growth and the uncertainty around growth forecasts. We exploit the vulnerability to these shocks in order to forecast the economic growth in Morocco. We use for this an Error Correction model linking output and trade balance in a vector augmented by oil prices and cereal production as exogenous variables over the period 1962-2012. The results are in the range and comparable to those of other national institutions and IMF. For example, based on the hypotheses of 97.7 $ per barrel and a moderate cereal production of 70 million quintals, growth is forecasted to be around 3%, in 2014, with a lower and upper bound of 2.5% and 3.4% respectively. The IMF and the High Commission for Planning forecast respectively 3.8% and 2.5%.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
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Original Title: | Oil prices, drought periods and growth forecasts in Morocco |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Trade Balance, GDP Volatility, Cereal Production, VECM-X model |
Subjects: | C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E27 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications |
Item ID: | 61522 |
Depositing User: | Mr EL MOSTAFA BENTOUR |
Date Deposited: | 25 Jan 2015 01:52 |
Last Modified: | 03 Oct 2019 04:43 |
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URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/61522 |
Available Versions of this Item
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Oil Prices, Drought Periods and Growth Forecasts in Morocco. (deposited 13 Jan 2014 13:32)
- Oil prices, drought periods and growth forecasts in Morocco. (deposited 25 Jan 2015 01:52) [Currently Displayed]