Public Capital Expenditure and Debt Dynamics: Evidence from the European Union

Bhatt Hakhu, Antra and Piergallini, Alessandro and Scaramozzino, Pasquale (2014): Public Capital Expenditure and Debt Dynamics: Evidence from the European Union.

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between public capital expenditure and public debt in the European Union (EU) on a panel of fifteen countries over the sample period 1980-2013. We find robust evidence of a negative cointegrating relation, according to which increases in the capital expenditure-GDP ratio cause reductions in the debt-GDP ratio in the long run. Our empirical results suggest that current EU fiscal austerity can trigger upward debt spirals if cuts in total expenditure disregard its composition. Consistently with the “golden rule of public finance”, EU fiscal rules should allow for higher levels of capital expenditure in order to foster debt consolidation through growth dividends.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Fiscal sustainability, EU, panel cointegration, public expenditure, public debt.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C23 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E62 - Fiscal Policy; H - Public Economics > H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt > H62 - Deficit ; Surplus; H - Public Economics > H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt > H63 - Debt ; Debt Management ; Sovereign Debt

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