Determinants of Inflation in Tunisia Using Structural Modeling

mhamdi, ghrissi (2012): Determinants of Inflation in Tunisia Using Structural Modeling. Published in: Journal of Business Studies Quarterly , Vol. 5, No. 2 (2013)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to advance a structural modeling of the monetary politics in Tunisia and to provide elements that contribute to the understanding of the determinants of the inflation. This study is going to refer in relation to the theoretical foundations of the Phillips Curve, to construct the fundamental equation to use by structural macro econometrics models that considers the most direct determinants of the inflation. In section 2 of this paper, the structural models of inflation are exposed in the simplest variant used internationally by the central banks. In section 3, one is going to present the results of the evaluation of three econometrics models with data of the economy Tunisian based on the specification that the Curve of Phillips proposes. Finally, in section 4, the results are analyzed and the implications are valued in relation to the conduct of the monetary politics in Tunisia.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: inflation, structural modeling,
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

References

Alaya, H (2002) Monnaie-Finance dans une économie en mutation. CPU. Tunis

Amano, R. & T. Macklem (1997). Menu Costs, Relative Prices, and Inflation: Evidence for Canada. Working Paper n° 97-14, Bank of Canada.

Ball, L., et G. Mankiw (1994). Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations. Economic Journal, vol. 104 (mars), p. 247-261.

Ball, L. & G. Mankiw, (1995) Relative-price changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks. Quarterly Journal of Economics 110, 161-193.

Ball, Laurence & Gregory Mankiw (1994) Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations. The Economics Journal, Vol. 104, No. 423, pp. 247-61.

*Bryan.M. F. & S. G. Cecchetti. (1993) The Consumer Price Index as a Measure of Inflation. NBER Working Papers n° 4505,

Zouhair Chrigui, Younes Boujelbene, Ghrissi Mhamdi (2010). Central Bank independence and inflation: Evidence from emerging countries. Journal of Policy Modeling,June 2010, Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

Ghrissi, Mhamdi (2013). Stability of money demand function in Tunisia. Interdisciplinary Journal of Contemporary Research In Business, ISSN 2073- 7122, IJCRB October, Edition 2013–IJCRB Vol .5, No. 6.

Ghrissi, Mhamdi (2009). Evaluation du degré d’indépendance de la Banque Centrale de Tunisie , Acts of the Fifth Day of monetary economics and banking JEMOB 2009 University of Sousse Available online at http://www.oboulo.com/summary?id=55862

Goodfriend, M. & R. King, (1997) The New Neo-Classical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 231-83.

Lucas R. E. Jr. (1972) Expectations and the Neutrality of Money. Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 4, pp. 103-24.

Schultz, B. (1987) Price Indices Below the Basic Aggregation Level. Bulletin of Labour Statistics, vol. 2, p. 9-16.

Stock, J.H. & M.W. Watson. (1989) Interpreting the Evidence on Money-Income Causality. Journal of Econometrics 40: 161–82.

Taylor J, (1999) Monetary Policy Roles. Chicago Press, NBER 1999