An econometric investigation of forecasting liquefied petroleum gas in Ghana

Yeboah Asuamah, Samuel (2015): An econometric investigation of forecasting liquefied petroleum gas in Ghana.

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to contribute to the body of knowledge in the area of forecasting using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for Ghana using monthly data for the period 2000-2011. The ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model was identified as suitable model. The findings show that the forecasted values insignificantly underestimate the actual consumption and thus indicate consistency of the results. The values of the evaluation statistics such as the ME; MSE; RMSE; MAE, and Theil’s statistic, on the accuracy of the model indicate that the estimated model is suitable for forecasting LPG. The findings support the continuous use of the ARIMA model in forecasting, in econometric time series forecast. Future study should consider modelling other energy sources that are used in Ghana and other developing economies such as kerosene.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Liquefied petroleum gas, autoregressive integrated moving average, Forecasting, Diagnostic statistics
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q47 - Energy Forecasting

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