中国财政政策调整的宏观经济效应——基于消费者异质性的新凯恩斯模型

Guo, Lingyi and Xu, Wenli and Xu, Kun (2016): 中国财政政策调整的宏观经济效应——基于消费者异质性的新凯恩斯模型.

Abstract

This paper construct the NK model with Cosummer’s Heterogenicity included three sectors, in which government is divided into three type of fiscal sector, social security department and central bank. The tax shocks, social security fees rate shock and fiscal expenditure shock are incorporated with the NK model to explord the contribution and the dynamic effect of the fiscal policy shocks on macroeconomic volatility. The results show that (1) the shocks of good taxation contribute most in real economy than the shocks of other fiscal policy, and the size of contribution on macroeconomic volatility is 65%; (2) reducing of the tax rates, social security fees rate and fiscal spending stimulate economic growth, and it is more important that cutting the tax rate of labour income and lowering social security fees rate are better measures; (3) cutting tax rates and lowering of social security fees rate improve the fiscal sustainability; (4)the inflation is a joint monetary-fiscal phenomenon. On this basis, this paper propose that government should adopt active tax and fee policies---cutting labour income taxation rate and lower social security fees rate, to spur stable economic growth, simultaneously raise benchmark interest rate to prevent inflation.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: The effect of Fiscal Consolidations on Chinese Maroeconomies——Based on The NK Model with Cosummer’s Heterogenicity
• Language: Chinese
• Keywords: NK model; Tax Policies Shocks; Social Security Fees Rate Shock; Fiscal Expenditure shocks; Macroeconomic Effect
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E62 - Fiscal Policy; H - Public Economics > H3 - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

References

Acemoglu Daron., Ucer Murat. The Ups and Downs of Turkish Growth，2002-2015. NBER working paper, No.21608, 2015. Aiyagari S Rao, 1995. "Optimal Capital Income Taxation with Incomplete Markets, Borrowing Constraints, and Constant Discounting," Journal of Political Economy, vol. 103(6), pages 1158-75. Baxter Marianne, King Robert G, 1993. "Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium," American Economic Review vol. 83(3), pages 315-34. Celso Jose Costa Junior, Armando Vaz Sampaio, 2014: “Tax Reduction Policies of the Productive Sector and Its Impacts on Brazilian Economy”, Dynare Working Papers Series, No.36, http://www.dynare.org/wp/. Chamley Christophe, 1986. "Optimal Taxation of Capital Income in General Equilibrium with Infinite Lives," Econometrica, vol. 54(3), pages 607-22. Chari V V., Christiano Lawrence J., Kehoe Patrick J., 1994. "Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Business Cycle Model," Journal of Political Economy, vol. 102(4), pages 617-52. Christopher A. Sims, 1980. “Macroeconomics and Reality”. Econometrica, Vol. 48, No. 1 (Jan., 1980), pp. 1-48 Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June. Eichengreen Barry, Park Donghyun, Shin Kwanho. Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle-Income Trap. NBER Working Paper, No.18673, 2013. Eric M. Leeper, Campbell Leith. Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary-Fiscal Phenomenon. NBER working paper, No.21867, 2016. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1983. “Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework”. Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 12, Issue 3, September 1983, Pages 383-398. Kydland Finn E, Prescott Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. Preitchett Lant., Summers Lawrence H.. Asiaphoria Meets Regression to The Mean. NBER working paper, NO.20573, 2014. Stephane Adjemian, Houtan Bastani, Michel Juillard, Frederic Karame, Ferhat Mihoubi,George Perendia, Johannes Pfeifer, Marco Ratto and Sebastien Villemot, 2011:“Dynare: Reference Manual, Version 4,”Dynare Working Papers, 1, CEPREMAP. Tim Schwarzmuller, Maik H. Wolters, 2015:“The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Dynamic General Equilibrium”, Dynare Working Papers Series, No.43, http://www.dynare.org/wp/. Wenlang Zhang, 2009, “China’s monetary policy: Quantity versus price rules”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 31:473-484. 高培勇，2015：《论完善税收制度的新阶段》，《经济研究》第2期。 龚锋，余锦亮，2015：《人口老年化、税收负担与财政可持续性》，《经济研究》第8期。 郭庆旺、吕冰洋，2011：《论税收对要素收入分配的影响》，《经济研究》第6期。 黄赜琳，2005：《中国经济周期特征与财政政策效应》，《经济研究》第6期。 黄赜琳、朱保华，2015：《中国的实际经济周期与税收政策效应》，《经济研究》第3期。Aleksandar Vasilev, 2015: “Welfare Effect of Flat Income Tax Reform: The Case of Bulgaria”, Eastern European Economics, 53: 205–220. 刘金全，张小宇，2012：《时变参数“泰勒规则”在我国货币政策操作中的实证研究》，《管理世界》第7期。 刘溶沧、马拴友，2002：《论税收与经济增长——对中国劳动、资本和消费征税的效应分析》， 《中国社会科学》第1 期。 王君斌，王文甫，2010：《非完全竞争市场、技术冲击和中国劳动就业——动态新凯恩斯主义视角》，《管理世界》第1期。 谢平，罗雄，2002：《泰勒规则及其在中国货币政策中的检验》，《经济研究》第3期。 郑挺国，刘金全，2010：《区制转移形式的“泰勒规则”及其在中国货币政策中的应用》，《经济研究》第3期。 中国经济增长前沿课题组，2015：《突破经济增长减速的新要素供给理论、体制与政策选择》，《经济研究》第11期。