Testing The ‘Black Swan Effect’ on Croatian Stock Market Between 2000 and 2013

Radman Peša, Anita and Brajković, Ana (2015): Testing The ‘Black Swan Effect’ on Croatian Stock Market Between 2000 and 2013. Published in: Emerging Markets Journal , Vol. 6, No. 1 (2 February 2016): pp. 1-16.

Abstract

We tested the economic activity and stock exchange of Croatia as a new country of European Union (EU) in order to investigate the ‘Black Swan effect’ from 2000 to 2013. The empirical findings obtained in application of OLS methodology and Chow breaking point test provide evidence and show that resignation of the Croatian ex-Prime Minister did lead country successfully to EU. Also, ‘The Black Swan’ event, being unpredictable and having huge impact on political and economic environment in Croatia obtained through CROBEX, had effect on Croatian stock exchange indices. Authors conclude that, the resignation was connected to one of the first significant cases of corruption in Croatia which had a negative impact on the economic development of the country in general, dealing at the same time with global recession.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: financial integration, stock exchange, world crisis, corruption, Black Swan
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F36 - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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