GDP Data Revisions in Macedonia – Is There Any Systematic Pattern?

Bogoev, Jane and Ramadani, Gani (2012): GDP Data Revisions in Macedonia – Is There Any Systematic Pattern?

Abstract

This paper investigates the existence of any systematic relationship between preliminary estimates and subsequent revisions of GDP growth rates in Macedonia. Accordingly, we use various statistical tools for testing the 'news' and 'noise' hypotheses and empirically assess if GDP data revisions are unbiased and efficient and vice versa. The results based on different empirical approaches in general provide mixed results about the predictability of GDP revisions, although the empirical evidence tends to incline that the long-term and final GDP revisions are efficient and contain new information that is in line with the 'news' hypothesis. We conclude that each subsequent revision is unpredictable.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: preliminary data, final data, revision, GDP, Macedonia
• Subjects: B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B2 - History of Economic Thought since 1925 > B22 - Macroeconomics; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E60 - General

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