Jensen, Nathaniel and Mude, Andrew and Barrett, Christopher (2016): How Basis Risk and Spatiotemporal Adverse Selection Influence Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from Northern Kenya.
This is the latest version of this item.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_72484.pdf Download (1MB) | Preview |
Abstract
Basis risk – the remaining risk that an insured individual faces – is widely acknowledged as the Achilles Heel of index insurance, but to date there has been no direct study of its role in determining demand for index insurance. Further, spatiotemporal variation in risk, and therefore basis risk, creates the possibility of adverse selection. We use longitudinal household data to determine which factors effect demand for index based livestock insurance (IBLI). We find that both price and the non-price factors studied previously are indeed important, but that basis risk and spatiotemporal adverse selection play a major role in demand for IBLI.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | How Basis Risk and Spatiotemporal Adverse Selection Influence Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from Northern Kenya |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Pastoralists, Index Insurance, Uptake |
Subjects: | D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O16 - Financial Markets ; Saving and Capital Investment ; Corporate Finance and Governance Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q12 - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets |
Item ID: | 72484 |
Depositing User: | Nathaniel Jensen |
Date Deposited: | 13 Jul 2016 05:40 |
Last Modified: | 27 Sep 2019 04:45 |
References: | Barnett, Barry J, Christopher B Barrett, and Jerry R Skees. 2008. Poverty Traps and Index-Based Risk Transfer Products. World Development 36 (10):1766-1785. Barnett, Barry J, and Olivier Mahul. 2007. Weather Index Insurance for Agriculture and Rural Areas in Lower-Income Countries. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 89 (5):1241-1247. Barrett, Christopher, Barry J Barnett, Michael Carter, Sommarat Chantarat, James Hansen, Andrew Mude, Daniel Osgood, Jerry Skees, Calum Turvey, and M Neil Ward. 2007. Poverty Traps and Climate risk: Limitations and Opportunities of Index-Based Risk Financing. IRI Technical Report 07-02 Barrett, Christopher B, Paswel Phiri Marenya, John McPeak, Bart Minten, Festus Murithi, Willis Oluoch-Kosura, Frank Place, Jean Claude Randrianarisoa, Jhon Rasambainarivo, and Justine Wangila. 2006. Welfare Dynamics in Rural Kenya and Madagascar. The Journal of Development Studies 42 (2):248-277. Barrett, Christopher B, and Paulo Santos. 2014. The Impact of Changing Rainfall Variability on Resource-Dependent Wealth Dynamics. Ecological Economics 105 (1):48-54. Binswanger-Mkhize, Hans P. 2012. Is there too much Hype about Index-Based Agricultural Insurance? Journal of Development Studies 48 (2):187-200. Boucher, Stephen R, Michael R Carter, and Catherine Guirkinger. 2008. Risk Rationing and Wealth Effects in Credit Markets: Theory and Implications for Agricultural Development. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 90 (2):409-423. Cai, Jing, Alain de Janvry, and Elisabeth Sadoulet. 2011. Social Networks and Insurance Take Up: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in China. ILO Microinsurance Innovation Facility Research Paper (8). Carriquiry, Miguel A, and Daniel E Osgood. 2012. Index Insurance, Probabilistic Climate Forecasts, and Production. Journal of Risk and Insurance 79 (1):287-300. Chamberlain, Gary. 1980. Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data. The Review of Economic Studies 47 (1):225-238. Chantarat, Sommarat, Christopher B Barrett, Andrew G Mude, and Calum G Turvey. 2007. Using Weather Index Insurance to Improve Drought Response for Famine Prevention. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 89 (5):1262-1268. Chantarat, Sommarat, Andrew G Mude, and Christopher B Barrett. 2009. Willingness to Pay for Index Based Livestock Insurance: Results from a field Experiment in Northern Kenya. Unpublished. Chantarat, Sommarat, Andrew G Mude, Christopher B Barrett, and Michael R Carter. 2013. Designing Index‐Based Livestock Insurance for Managing Asset Risk in Northern Kenya. Journal of Risk and Insurance 80 (1):205-237. Chantarat, Sommarat, Andrew G Mude, Christopher B Barrett, and Calum G Turvey. 2014. The Performance of Index Based Livestock Insurance: Ex Ante Assessment in the Presence of a Poverty Trap. Unpublished. Clarke, Daniel J. 2011. A Theory of Rational Demand for Index Insurance, Department of Economics, University of Oxford. Cole, Shawn, Xavier Giné, Jeremy Tobacman, Robert Townsend, Petia Topalova, and James Vickery. 2013. Barriers to Household Risk Management: Evidence from India. American Economic Journal: Applied economics 5 (1):104. Cragg, John 1971. Some Statistical Models for Limited Dependent Variables with Application to the Demand for Durable Goods. Econometrica 39 (5):829-844. Dercon, Stefan, Ruth Hill, Daniel Clarke, Ingo Outes-Leon, and Alemayehu Taffesse. 2014. Offering Rainfall Insurance to Informal Insurance Groups: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Ethiopia. Journal of Development Economics 106:132-143. Food and Agriculture Organization, (FAO). 1999. Livestock and Environment Toolbox: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). http://www.fao.org (accessed May 2014). Giné, Xavier, Robert Townsend, and James Vickery. 2008. Patterns of Rainfall Insurance Participation in Rural India. The World Bank Economic Review 22 (3):539-566. Giné, Xavier, and Dean Yang. 2009. Insurance, Credit, and Technology Adoption: Field Experimental Evidence from Malawi. Journal of Development Economics 89 (1):1-11. Greene, William. 2004. The Behaviour of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator of Limited Dependent Variable Models in the Presence of Fixed Effects. The Econometrics Journal 7 (1):98-119. Hazell, Peter, and Ulrich Hess. 2010. Drought Insurance for Agricultural Development and Food Security in Dryland Areas. Food Security 2 (4):395-405. Heckman, James J. 1979. Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error. Econometrica 47 (1):153-161. Hellmuth, Molly, Daniel Osgood, Ulrich Hess, Anne Moorhead, and Haresh Bhojwani, eds. 2009. Index Insurance and Climate risk: Prospects for Development and Disaster Management: Climate and Society No. 2. International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University, New York, USA. Hess, Ulrich, Jerry Skees, Andrea Stoppa, Berry Barnett, and John Nash. 2005. Managing Agricultural Production Risk: Innovations in Developing Countries. Agriculture and Rural Development (ARD) Department Report (32727-GLB). Hill, Ruth Vargas, Miguel Robles, and Francisco Ceballos. 2013. Demand for Weather Hedges in India: An Empirical Exploration of Theoretical Predictions. Vol. 1280: Intl Food Policy Res Inst. Hurrell, Alex, and Rachel Sabates-Wheeler. 2013. Kenya Hunger Safety Net Programme Monitoring and Evaluation Component: Quantitative Impact Evaluation Final Report: 2009 to 2012. Oxford Policy Management. International Livestock Research Institute, (IRLI). 2012. Index Based Livestock Insurance for Northeastern Kenya’s Arid and Semi-Arid Lands: The Marsabit Pilot Project-Codebook for IBLI Evaluation Baseline Survey. Nairobi, Kenya: ILRI. Janzen, Sarah A, Michael R Carter, and Munenobu Ikegami. 2013. Valuing Asset Insurance in the Presence of Poverty Traps. Unpublished. Jensen, Nathaniel D, Christopher B Barrett, and Andrew G Mude. 2014. Basis Risk and the Welfare Gains from Index Insurance: Evidence from Northern Kenya. Unpublished. Jensen, Nathaniel D, Christopher B Barrett, and Andrew G Mude. 2014. Index Insurance and Cash Transfers: A Comparative Analysis from Northern Kenya. Unpublished. Juárez, F. 2014. shapely2. STATA user-written command. Karlan, D, R Osei, I Osei-Akoto, and C Udry. 2014. Agricultural Decisions after Relaxing Risk and Credit Constraints. Quarterly Journal of Economics 129 (2):597-652. Leblois, Antoine, and Philippe Quirion. 2013. Agricultural Insurances Based on Meteorological Indices: Realizations, Methods and Research Challenges. Meteorological Applications 20 (1):1-9. Liu, Yanyan, and Robert Myers. 2012. The Dynamics of Insurance Demand Under Liquidity Constraints and Insurer Default Risk. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Lybbert, Travis J., Christopher Barrett, Solomon Desta, and D. Layne Coppock. 2004. Stochastic Wealth Dynamics and Risk Management Among a Poor Population. The Economic Journal 114 (498):750-777. Lybbert, Travis J, David R Just, and Christopher B Barrett. 2013. Estimating Risk Preferences in the Presence of Bifurcated Wealth Dynamics: Can we Identify Static Risk Aversion Amidst Dynamic Risk Responses? European Review of Agricultural Economics 40 (2):361-377. Mahul, Olivier, and Jerry R Skees. 2007. Managing Agricultural Risk at the Country Level: The Case of Index-Based Livestock Insurance in Mongolia. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper (4325). McIntosh, Craig, Alexander Sarris, and Fotis Papadopoulos. 2013. Productivity, Credit, Risk, and the Demand for Weather Index Insurance in Smallholder Agriculture in Ethiopia. Agricultural Economics 44 (4-5):399-417. McPeak, John. 2006. Confronting the Risk of Asset Loss: What Role do Livestock Transfers in Northern Kenya Play? Journal of Development Economics 81 (2):415-437. McPeak, John, Sommarat Chantarat, and Andrew Mude. 2010. Explaining Index-Based Livestock Insurance to Pastoralists. Agricultural Finance Review 70 (3):333-352. McPeak, John G, and Christopher B Barrett. 2001. Differential Risk Exposure and Stochastic Poverty Traps among East African Pastoralists. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 83 (3):674-679. McPeak, John, Peter Little, and Cheryl Doss. 2011. Risk and Social Change in an African Rural Economy: Livelihoods in Pastoralist Communities: Routledge. Miranda, Mario J, and Katie Farrin. 2012. Index Insurance for Developing Countries. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 34 (3):391-427. Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq, and Mark R Rosenzweig. 2012. Selling Formal Insurance to the Informally Insured. Unpublished. Mundlak, Yair. 1978. On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data. Econometrica 46 (1):69-85. Patt, Anthony, Pablo Suarez, and Ulrich Hess. 2010. How do Small-Holder Farmers Understand Insurance, and How Much do They Want it? Evidence from Africa. Global Environmental Change 20 (1):153-161. Santos, Paulo, and Christopher B Barrett. 2011. Persistent Poverty and Informal Credit. Journal of Development Economics 96 (2):337-347. Shapley, Lloyd. 1953. A Value for n-person Games. In Contributions to the Theory of Games, edited by H. W. Kuhn and A. W. Tucker: Princeton University Press. Shorrocks, Anthony F. 2013. Decomposition Procedures for Distributional Analysis: A Unified Framework Based on the Shapley value. Journal of Economic Inequality 11 (1):1-28. Skees, Jerry R, and Benjamin Collier. 2008. The Potential of Weather Index Insurance for Spurring a Green Revolution in Africa. Global Ag Risk Inc. Skees, Jerry R, Jason Hartell, JQ Hao, A Sarris, and D Hallam. 2006. Weather and Index-Based Insurance for Developing Countries: Experience and Possibilities. In Agricultural Commodity Markets and Trade: New Approaches to Analyzing Market Structure and Instability, edited by A. Sarris and D. Hallam. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar. Smith, Vince, and Myles Watts. 2009. Index based Agricultural Insurance in Developing Countries: Feasibility, Scalability and Sustainability. Report to the Gates Foundation. Tobin, James. 1958. Estimation of Relationships for Limited Dependent Variables. Econometrica 26 (1):24-36. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. 1995. Selection Corrections for Panel Data Models Under Conditional Mean Independence Assumptions. Journal of Econometrics 68 (1):115-132. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/72484 |
Available Versions of this Item
-
How Basis Risk and Spatiotemporal Adverse Selection Influence Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from Northern Kenya. (deposited 08 Dec 2014 19:45)
-
How Basis Risk and Spatiotemporal Adverse Selection Influence Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from Northern Kenya. (deposited 12 Dec 2014 16:55)
- How Basis Risk and Spatiotemporal Adverse Selection Influence Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from Northern Kenya. (deposited 13 Jul 2016 05:40) [Currently Displayed]
-
How Basis Risk and Spatiotemporal Adverse Selection Influence Demand for Index Insurance: Evidence from Northern Kenya. (deposited 12 Dec 2014 16:55)