Downside Business Confidence Spillovers in Europe: Evidence from Causality-in-Risk Tests

Atukeren, Erdal and Cevik, Emrah Ismail and Korkmaz, Turhan (2015): Downside Business Confidence Spillovers in Europe: Evidence from Causality-in-Risk Tests. Published in: Journal of Economic Policy Reform , Vol. 18, No. 4 (2015): pp. 341-357.

Abstract

This paper employs Hong et al.’s (2009) extreme risk spillovers test to investigate the bilateral business confidence spillovers between Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, and Germany. After controlling for domestic economic developments in each country and common international factors, downside risk spillovers are detected as a causal feedback between Spain and Portugal and unilaterally from Spain to Italy. Extremely low business sentiments in France, Germany, and Greece are mostly due to the common adverse economic environment and to each country’s own domestic economic developments.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: European economy, Business confidence, Downside risk, Granger-causality
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General

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