The Greek-Turkish Arms Race Using Artificial Neural Networks

Andreou, Andreas S. and Zombanakis, George (2003): The Greek-Turkish Arms Race Using Artificial Neural Networks. Published in: INTELLIGENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS APPLIED TO COMPLICATED DEFENCE PROBLEMS (14 July 2003): pp. 13-48.

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to forecast the pressure due to this arms race between Greece and Turkey exercised on the economy of the former. This forecast, established on the basis of the most appropriate explanatory variables, will provide the opportunity to comment on the nature and relative importance of the explanatory variables that determine the burden of this arms race on the Greek economy, as this is approximated by either the military debt of the country or the defence share of GDP. The method of analysis used is that of Artificial Neural Networks, which has been considered preferable to the conventional estimation methods for the purposes of the present analysis for reasons analyzed later on in this paper.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Arms Race, Neural Networks, Defence Expenditure
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C65 - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools; H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies > H56 - National Security and War

References

Antonakis N. (1996) Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries. Economia Internazionale 49, (3), p.p.329-346.

Antonakis N. (1997) Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Greece. Journal of Peace Research 34, (1), p.p.89-100.

Azoff, E. M. (1994) Neural Network Time Series Forecasting of Financial Markets. John Wiley & Sons, N.Y.

Benoit, E. (1978) Growth and Defense in Developing Countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, v. 26, no. 2, pp. 271-280.

Buck D., K. Hartley and N. Hooper (1993), Defence Research and Development, Crowding Out and the Peace Dividend. Defence Economics 4, p.p. 161-178

Deger, S. (1986) Military Expenditure in Third World Countries. The Economic Effects, London: Routledge.

Fontanel J. (1994) The Economics of Disarmament: A Survey. Defence and Peace Economics 5 (2), p.p. 87-120.

Hartley, K. and N. Hooper (1990) The Economics of Defense, Disarmament and Peace: An Annotated Bibliography, Aldershot & Brookfield, VT: Elgar.

Hartley, K. and T. Sandler (eds.) (1990) The Economics of Defence Spending: An International Survey, London, Routledge.

Hill T., M. O'Connor, W. Remus (1996) Neural Network Models for Time Series Forecasting. Management Science, 42(7), p.p. 1082-1092.

Kollias C. (1994) The Economic Effects of Defence Spending in Greece 1963-1990. Spoudai 44 (3-4), p.p. 114-130.

Kollias, C. (1995) Preliminary Findings on the Economic Effects of Greek Military Expenditure. Applied Economics Letters 2, (1), p.p. 16-18.

Kollias C. (1996) The Greek-Turkish Conflict and Greek Military Expenditure 1960-1992. Journal of Peace Research 33 (2), p.p. 217-228.

Kollias C. and S. Makrydakis (1997) Is There a Greek-Turkish Arms-Race? Evidence from Causality Tests. Defence and Peace Economics 8, (4), p.p. 319-412.

Kuo C. and A. Reitsch (1995) Neural Networks vs. Conventional Methods of Forecasting. The Journal of Business Forecasting, Winter 1995-1996., p.p.17-22.

Levine P. and R. Smith (1997) The Arms Trade and the Stability of Regional Arms Races. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 21, (2-3), p.p. 631-654.

Looney, R.E. (1994) The Economics of Third World Defence Expenditures, in: Contemporary Studies in Economic and Financial Analysis, vol. 72, JAI Press.

Mc Williams-Tullberg, R. (1987) Military-Related Debt in Non-Oil Developing Countries, 1972-1982, in: Schmidt C. and Blackaby F. (eds.) Peace, Defence and Economic Analysis: IEA and SIPRI Conference Proceedings, New York, St. Martin's.

Refenes, A., N., Kollias, C. and Zarpanis A. (1995) External Security Determinants of Greek Military Expenditure: An Empirical Investigation Using Neural Networks. Defence and Peace Economics, vol. 6, p.p. 27-41.

Rumelhart, D.E. and McLelland, J. (1986) Parallel Distributed Processing, Cambridge, MA, MIT Press.

Stavrinos, V.G. and G. A. Zombanakis (1998) The Vicious Cycle of the Foreign Military Debt. European Research Studies 1, (1), p.p. 1-26

Unistat Ltd. (1994) Cortex-Pro Neural Networks Development System, London, U.K., 1994.

Ward, M.D. et al. (1991) Military Spending in India. Defence Economics, 3 (1), p.p. 41-63.