Review of Ravi Batra, The Great Depression of 1990

Armstrong, J. Scott (1988): Review of Ravi Batra, The Great Depression of 1990. Published in: International Journal of Forecasting No. 4 (1988): pp. 493-495.

Abstract

The Great Depression of 1990 was on the New York Times best-seller list for non-fiction in the summer of 1987. It follows a standard formula for best sellers in forecasting: Forecast a great disaster, and include a formula for redemption. If the disaster occurs, you can say, "I told you so." If it doesn't occur, you say, "It is good that they listened to my advice. I saved them." How can you lose? When I first saw this book, it occurred to me that it was a hoax.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: economic forecasting
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General; H - Public Economics > H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt > H68 - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

References

Armstrong, I. Scott, l980, “The seer-sucker theory: The value of experts in forecasting,” Technology Review 83. June/July, 18-24.

Armstrong, J. Scott. 1987, “The forecasting audit,” in: Spyros Makridakis and S.C. Wheelwright. eds., The handbook of forecasting (Wiley, New York) 584-602.

Bell, John G. and J. J. Seater. 1978. “Publishing performance: Departmental and individual,” Economic Inquiry 16, 599-613.

Cerf, Christopher and V. Navasky. 1984. The experts speak (Pantheon. New York).