Testing for Bubbles in Stock Markets with Irregular Dividend Distribution

Caspi, Itamar and Graham, Meital (2017): Testing for Bubbles in Stock Markets with Irregular Dividend Distribution.

Abstract

Recursive right-tailed unit root tests have recently become a popular tool to test the existence of stock price bubbles. These tests require continuous data on dividend distribution that is not always available, in particular when it comes to sectoral indexes or individual stocks. In this paper we show that it is possible to circumvent this problem by applying the test to an equity bubble using the book-to-market ratio. We illustrate our framework by testing for a bubble in the Israeli stock market, where data on continuous dividend distribution are uncommon.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Bubbles, stock markets, book-to-market, explosive root, GSADF test, Israel
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C15 - Statistical Simulation Methods: General; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing ; Trading Volume ; Bond Interest Rates; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G15 - International Financial Markets

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