Studying Family Formation Trajectories’ Deinstitutionalization in Russia Using Sequence Analysis

Mitrofanova, Ekaterina S. and Artamonova, Alyona V. (2016): Studying Family Formation Trajectories’ Deinstitutionalization in Russia Using Sequence Analysis. Published in: CEUR Workshop Proceeding , Vol. 1627, No. Experimental Economics and Machine Learning (25 July 2016): pp. 34-47.

Abstract

This study focuses on changing family formation trajectories in the Russian Federation. In European countries, pathways to family ceased being stable several decades ago, while in Russia – as in any post-socialist country - such features of life course deinstitutionalization as postponement of marriage, rising cohabitation, and reordering of events were revealed only in the 1990s and explained from the perspective of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT). Our aim is to demonstrate how family formation trajectories of men and women from different generations were transforming with the incorporation of data mining. The three-wave panel data of the Russian part of the “Generations and Gender Survey” (2004, 2007, 2011; N=5321) and the retrospective data of the survey “Person, Family, Society” (2013; N=4477) are used for achieving this aim. Sequence Analysis shows that generations born after 1970 started to exhibit de-standardized family formation trajectories. As the proportion of Russians who raise children in cohabitation or while single rises, such models of behavior become more widely accepted and practiced in contemporary Russia. Women experience more events in the family trajectory, take steps toward family formation earlier, and stay alone with children more often than men. Matrimonial and reproductive behavior has become diverse, proving that Russia fully exhibits the SDT.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: family formation trajectories, matrimonial and reproductive behavior, sequence analysis
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C55 - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J13 - Fertility ; Family Planning ; Child Care ; Children ; Youth

References

Avdeev, A., Monnier, A.: Marriage in Russia: A Complex Phenomenon Poorly Understood. Popul. Engl. Sel. 12, pp. 7–49 (2000)

Kaa, D.J. van de, Lesthaeghe, R.: Two Demographic Transitions? Population: Growth and Decline, pp. 9–24 (1986)

Mayer, K.U.: Whose Lives? How History, Societies, and Institutions Define and Shape Life Courses. Research in Human Development 1 (3), pp. 161–187 (2004)

Gerber, T.: Changing family formation behavior in post-socialist countries: Similarities, divergences, and explanations in comparative perspective. Draft for presentation at the “1989: Twenty Years After Conference” (2009)

Gerber, T.P., Berman, D.: Entry to Marriage and Cohabitation in Russia, 1985–2000: Trends, Correlates, and Implications for the Second Demographic Transition. Eur. J. Popul., pp. 26: 3–31 (2010)

Zakharov, S.: Russian Federation: From the first to second demographic transition. Demographic Research, 19, pp. 907–972 (2008)

Mills, M., Lesnard, L., Potarca, G.: Family Formation Trajectories in Romania, the Russian Federation and France: Towards the Second Demographic Transition?. European Journal of Population, 29, pp. 69-101 (2013)

Levada, Y.: Generations of ХХ Century: Opportunities of Studies. In Y. Levada, Т. Shanin. М. Fathers and Children: Analysis of Contemporary Russian Generations. Moscow, pp. 39-60 (2005)

Billari, F.C.: Sequence Analysis in Demographic Research. Special Issue on Longitudinal Methodology. Canadian Studies in Population Vol. 28(2), pp. 439-458 (2001)

Ignatov, D., Mitrofanova, E., Muratova, A., Gizdatullin, D.: Pattern Mining and Machine Learning for Demographic Sequences. KESW 2015, pp. 225-239 (2015)

Blockeel, H., Fürnkranz, J., Prskawetz, A., Billari, F.C.: Detecting Temporal Change in Event Sequences: An Application to Demographic Data. PKDD, pp. 29-41 (2001)

Low-Kam C., Raïssi C., Kaytoue M., Pei J.: Mining Statistically Significant Sequential Patterns. ICDM, pp. 488-497 (2013)

Worts, D. et al.: Individualization, Opportunity and Jeopardy in American Women’s Work and Family Lives: A Multi-State Sequence Analysis. Advances in Life Course Research, 18, pp. 296–318 (2013)

Billari, F. C., Fürnkranz, J. and Prskawetz, A.: Timing, Sequencing, and Quantum of Life Course Events: A Machine Learning Approach. European Journal of Population, 22, pp. 37–65 (2006)

Mouw, T.: Sequences of Early Adult Transitions: How Variable Are They, and Does It Matter. Frontier of Adulthood: Theory, Research, and Public Policy, pp.256–91 (2005)

Billari, F.C., Rosina, A.: Italian “Latest-Late” Transition to Adulthood: An Exploration of Its Consequences on Fertility. Genus (2004)

Aassve, A., Billari, F.C. and Piccarreta, R.: Strings of Adulthood: A Sequence Analysis of Young British Women’s Work - Family Trajectories. European Journal of Population, 23, pp. 369–88 (2007)

Jackson, P.B. and Berkowitz, A.: The Structure of the Life Course: Gender and Racioethnic Variation in the Occurrence and Sequencing of Role Transitions. Advances in Life Course Research, 9, pp. 55–90 (2005)

Elzinga, C.H. and Liefbroer, A.C.: De-Standardization of Family-Life Trajectories of Young Adults: A Cross-National Comparison Using Sequence Analysis // European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie, 23, pp. 225 –50 (2007)

Oris, M. and Ritschard, G.: Sequence Analysis and Transition to Adulthood: An Exploration of the Access to Reproduction in Nineteenth-Century East Belgium. Advances in Sequence Analysis: Theory, Method, Applications. Springer International Publishing, pp. 151–167 (2014)

Piccarreta, R., Billari, F.C.: Clustering work and family trajectories by using a divisive algorithm. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. A Stat. Soc. Т. 170. No 4, pp. 1061–1078 (2007)

Dong, G., Pei, J.: Sequence Data Mining. New York: Springer (2007)

Zaki, M.J. and Meira, W. Jr.: Data Mining and Analysis: Fundamental Concepts and Algorithms. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, USA (2014)

Han, J., Kamber M.: Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques. Morgan Kaufmann (2006)

Elzinga, C.H., Studer, M.: Spell sequences, state proximities and distance metrics. Sociol. Methods Res. Т. 44. No 1 (2015)

Elzinga, C.H.: Distance, Similarity and Sequence Comparison. Advances in Sequence Analysis: Theory, Method, Applications. Springer, pp. 51–74 (2014)

Elzinga, C.H.: Sequence Similarity: A Nonaligning Technique. Sociol. Methods Res. Т. 32. No 1, pp. 3–29 (2003)

Barban, N., Billari, F.C.: Classifying life course trajectories: A comparison of latent class and sequence analysis. J. R. Stat. Soc. Т. 61. No 5, pp. 765–784 (2012)

Gabadinho, A., Ritschard, G., Muller, N. S., Studer, M.: Analyzing and Visualizing State Sequences in R with TraMineR. Journal of Statistical Software, 40(4), pp. 1-37 (2011) URL: http://www.jstatsoft.org/v40/i04/