The Macroeconomic Determinants of Economic Growth in Zambia: Do Copper prices matter?

Chizonde, Bright (2016): The Macroeconomic Determinants of Economic Growth in Zambia: Do Copper prices matter?

Abstract

This research investigates the determinants of economic growth in Zambia using the Bounds Approach to Cointegration developed by Persaran (1999). Since Zambia’s economy is said to be dependent on copper mining, economic analysts postulate that economic growth in Zambia is dependent on international copper prices and thus externally determined. This is somewhat problematic because it absorbs policy makers and government of the responsibility to generate sustainable growth. In order to test the validity of this postulation, the study estimates an Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) Model with copper prices as one of the variables of interest. Estimation results indicate that, in the long-run, economic growth is determined by physical capital, exchange rate, inflation, crude oil price, government spending and agricultural productivity; international copper prices only influence growth in the short-run. Therefore, with proper planning and strategic policy interventions, Zambia can still achieve higher sustainable economic growth even when international copper prices are falling.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) Model, copper prices, Economic growth, Zambia
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q3 - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation

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