Estimating a fiscal reaction function for the South East European countries

Tashevska, Biljana and Trpkova-Nestorovska, Marija and Trenovski, Borce (2017): Estimating a fiscal reaction function for the South East European countries. Published in: International Statistical Conference in Croatia: “New Advances in Statistical Methods Applications for a Better World“ , Vol. 1, No. 2 (2018): pp. 36-43.

Abstract

The global economic crisis caused a deterioration in the public finances of the South East European countries. Hence, the issue of fiscal sustainability became important not only for the developed EU countries (considering the European debt crisis), but also for the SEE region. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the existing literature on fiscal sustainability in the South East Europe by estimating a panel fiscal reaction function. The paper analyses how primary government balances adjust to increasing government debt and to the economic cycle. The main goal is to test whether fiscal policy in these countries tends to react to a sufficient extent to increasing public debt in order to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability. The results of the empirical analysis imply a pro-cyclical fiscal policy in the SEE countries. Regarding fiscal sustainability, the results show that initially a rise in the debt level is followed by a deterioration of the primary balance, which is not consistent with sustainability of public finances. However, in the medium run primary balance seems to adjust to rising debt.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: fiscal sustainability, fiscal reaction function, South East European countries
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E62 - Fiscal Policy; H - Public Economics > H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt > H62 - Deficit ; Surplus; H - Public Economics > H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt > H63 - Debt ; Debt Management ; Sovereign Debt

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