A Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach to the population question in Pakistan: A reliable prognosis

NYONI, THABANI (2019): A Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach to the population question in Pakistan: A reliable prognosis.

Abstract

Employing annual time series data on total population in Pakistan from 1960 to 2017, we model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Based on the minimum AIC and Theil’s U, the study presents the ARIMA (3, 2, 1) model. The diagnostic tests indicate that the presented model is stable. The results of the study reveal that total population in Pakistan will continue to sharply rise within the next three decades, for up to approximately 324 million people by 2050. In order to address the threats posed by such a population explosion, 3 policy recommendations have been put forward.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Forecasting; Pakistan; population
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q56 - Environment and Development ; Environment and Trade ; Sustainability ; Environmental Accounts and Accounting ; Environmental Equity ; Population Growth; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R2 - Household Analysis > R23 - Regional Migration ; Regional Labor Markets ; Population ; Neighborhood Characteristics

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