Predicting total population in India: A Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach

NYONI, THABANI (2019): Predicting total population in India: A Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach.

Abstract

Employing annual time series data on total population in India from 1960 to 2017, we model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests show that Indian annual total population data is I (2). Based on both the AIC and Theil’s U, the study presents the ARIMA (1, 2, 3) model. The diagnostic tests further confirm that the presented model is stable and quite acceptable. The results of the study reveal that total population in India will continue to sharply rise in the next three decades, thereby posing a threat to both natural and non-renewable resources. In order to deal with the threats posed by a large population in India, the study recommends family planning practices amongst other policy prescriptions.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Forecasting; India; population
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q56 - Environment and Development ; Environment and Trade ; Sustainability ; Environmental Accounts and Accounting ; Environmental Equity ; Population Growth; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R2 - Household Analysis > R23 - Regional Migration ; Regional Labor Markets ; Population ; Neighborhood Characteristics

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