Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach to predicting total population in Russia

NYONI, THABANI (2019): Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach to predicting total population in Russia.

Abstract

Employing annual time series data on total population in Russia from 1960 to 2017, we model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Russia annual total population is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (1, 2, 1) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is quite stable and that its residuals are stationary as well. The results of the study reveal that total population in Russia will continue to rise, but slowly, in the next three decades and in 2050 Russia’s total population will be approximately 147 million people. Three policy prescriptions have been suggested for consideration by the government of the federation of Russia.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Forecasting; population; Russia
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q56 - Environment and Development ; Environment and Trade ; Sustainability ; Environmental Accounts and Accounting ; Environmental Equity ; Population Growth; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R2 - Household Analysis > R23 - Regional Migration ; Regional Labor Markets ; Population ; Neighborhood Characteristics

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