Population Dynamics and the Demographic Dividend Potential of Eastern and Southern Africa: A Primer

Cummins, Matthew (2019): Population Dynamics and the Demographic Dividend Potential of Eastern and Southern Africa: A Primer.

Abstract

This working paper provides an overview of demographic trends that are upending the Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) region and the potential to capitalize on the demographic dividend. The demographic dividend is the time-bound opportunity to catalyze economic growth and poverty reduction as the working age population expands due to falling birth and death rates. Using a variety of demographic variables, the paper describes the ongoing population boom in ESA alongside the move toward higher levels of savings and investment that can propel the production of more goods and services and hence greater income and opportunities. It then assesses the recent and likely trajectory of human capital in the region – a key determinant of the dividend – while also modelling an alternative policy path whereby governments immediately ensure that each newborn reaches their full physical and cognitive development while also completing secondary school. The paper concludes by highlighting the importance of greater and better investment in human capital sectors, which will determine how much of the remaining dividend can be salvaged, while also discussing how UNICEF and development partners can help.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Population growth Demographic transition Demographic dividend Labor supply Human capital Economic growth Social sector spending Human capital investment
• Subjects: J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor > J21 - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor > J24 - Human Capital ; Skills ; Occupational Choice ; Labor Productivity

References

African Institute for Development Policy and University of Southampton (2018) Regional Analysis of Youth Demographics, Nairobi: African Institute for Development Policy.

Bloom, D., Kuhn, M. and K. Prettner (2017) “Africa’s Prospects for Enjoying a Demographic Dividend,” Journal of Demographic Economics (JODE), Cambridge University Press 83(1), pp. 63-76.

Canning, D. (2011) “The Causes and Consequences of Demographic Transition,” Population Studies 65:3, pp. 353-361.

Canning, D., Raja, S. and A. Yazbeck (2015). Africa’s Demographic Transition: Dividend or Disaster?, Washington, DC: World Bank.

Cummins, M. (2019a) The Macroeconomic and Social Investment Outlook for Children in Eastern and Southern Africa, Nairobi: UNICEF ESARO.

Cummins, M. (2019b) Fiscal Space for Children and Human Capital in Eastern and Southern Africa: Options and Strategic Entry Points to Address Investment Gaps in 16 Countries, Nairobi: UNICEF ESARO.

Lutz, W., Cuaresma, J. C., Kebede, E., Prskawetz, A., Sanderson, W. C. and E. Striessnig (2019) “Education rather than Age Structure Brings Demographic Dividend,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) 116 (26) 12798-12803.

United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) and the African Union Commission (2013) “Africa and the Challenge of Realizing the Demographic Dividend,” 5 Policy Briefs on the Demographic Dividend.

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) (2015). Incheon Declaration and SDG4 – Education 2030 Framework for Action. Paris: UNESCO.

USAID, Policy Advocacy Communication Enhanced and Population Reference Bureau (2019) “The Four Dividends,” Population Reference Bureau.

WHO (2011). The Abuja Declaration: Ten Years On. WHO: Geneva.

World Bank (2018) “The Human Capital Project,” World Bank Working Paper.