Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Analysis and measurement of the uncertainty in Mini-Dms model for the French economy

Bianchi, Carlo and Brillet, Jean-Louis and Calzolari, Giorgio (1983): Analysis and measurement of the uncertainty in Mini-Dms model for the French economy.

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Abstract

It is purpose of this paper to evidence, in the behaviour of the Mini-DMS model for the French economy, some stochastic properties which may confirm, strengthen or sometimes contradict the results obtained from the standard simulation analysis, which is purely deterministic. In particular, the model's capabllities in forecasting, in economic policy experiments, and the model's dynamic behaviour will be faced by regarding forecasts, multipliers and cbaracteristic roots as point estimates and associating with them a measure of dispersion, like a standard error.

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