Carolan, Terrie and Mora, Jesse and Singh, Nirvikar (2012): Trade Dynamics in the East Asian Miracle: A Time Series Analysis of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992.
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We examine the composition of bilateral trade between the United States and eight Asian Pacific economies from 1962 to 1992. Two complementary time series analyses of individual commodities at the SITC four-digit level indicate that significant changes occurred in trade composition during this period. We use a measure of normalized trade balances, developed by Gagnon and Rose (1995). For the eight bilateral trade relationships, commodities representing from fifty to seventy percent of 1992 dollar trade have shown statistically significant changes in the magnitude and, in some cases, in the direction of normalized trade balances, over the thirty-year period. Results support the conclusion that changes in trade patterns in both low-tech industries, such as textiles and clothing, and more high-tech industries, such as electronic parts and electronic goods, were important in the development of the East Asian economies.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Trade Dynamics in the East Asian Miracle: A Time Series Analysis of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992|
|Keywords:||international trade flows; time series; ADF; KPSS; trends; economic development|
|Subjects:||F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F17 - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
F - International Economics > F0 - General > F02 - International Economic Order
F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O14 - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
|Depositing User:||Jesse Mora|
|Date Deposited:||06. Mar 2012 11:37|
|Last Modified:||23. Feb 2013 13:51|
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