Carolan, Terrie and Mora, Jesse and Singh, Nirvikar (2012): Trade Dynamics in the East Asian Miracle: A Time Series Analysis of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992.
Download (610Kb) | Preview
We examine the composition of bilateral trade between the United States and eight Asian Pacific economies from 1962 to 1992. Two complementary time series analyses of individual commodities at the SITC four-digit level indicate that significant changes occurred in trade composition during this period. We use a measure of normalized trade balances, developed by Gagnon and Rose (1995). For the eight bilateral trade relationships, commodities representing from fifty to seventy percent of 1992 dollar trade have shown statistically significant changes in the magnitude and, in some cases, in the direction of normalized trade balances, over the thirty-year period. Results support the conclusion that changes in trade patterns in both low-tech industries, such as textiles and clothing, and more high-tech industries, such as electronic parts and electronic goods, were important in the development of the East Asian economies.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Trade Dynamics in the East Asian Miracle: A Time Series Analysis of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992|
|Keywords:||international trade flows; time series; ADF; KPSS; trends; economic development|
|Subjects:||F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F17 - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
F - International Economics > F0 - General > F02 - International Economic Order
F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O14 - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
|Depositing User:||Jesse Mora|
|Date Deposited:||06. Mar 2012 11:37|
|Last Modified:||23. Feb 2013 13:51|
Ahearne, Alan, John Fernald, Prakash Loungani, and John Schindler, “Flying Geese or Sitting Ducks: China’s Impact on the Trading Fortunes of other Asian Economies,” in Yin-Wong Cheung and Kar-Yiu Wong (eds.), China and Asia: Economic and financial interactions, New York: Routledge, 2009.
Athukorala, Prema-chandra and Nobuaki Yamshita, “Product fragmentation and trade integration: East Asia in a global context,” North American Journal of Economics and Finance, v. 17, pp. 233-256, 2006.
Bradford, Colin I., Jr., and William H. Branson, ed., Trade and Structural Change in Pacific Asia, NBER conference report. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1987.
Carolan, Terrie, Nirvikar Singh, and Cyrus Talati, “The Composition of U.S.-East Asia Trade and Changing Comparative Advantage,” Journal of Economic Development, v. 57(2), pp. 361-389, 1998
Carter, Colin, and Xianghong Li, “Implications of World Trade Organisation accession for China’s agricultural trade patterns, The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, v. 46:2, pp. 193-207, 2002.
Cheung, Yin-Wong and Kon S. Lai, “Lag Order and Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, v. 13, pp. 277-280, 1995.
Cheung, Yin-Wong and Menzie D. Chinn, “Deterministic, Stochastic, and Segmented Trends in Aggregate Output: A Cross-Country Analysis,” Oxford Economic Papers, 48:1:134-162, January 1996.
Cheung, Yin-Wong and Menzie D. Chinn, “Further Investigation of the Unit Root in GNP,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, v. 15, pp. 68-73, January 1997.
Dean, Judith, Mary E. Lovely, and Jesse Mora, “Decomposing China-Japan-U.S. Trade: Vertical Specialization, Ownership, and Organizational Form,” Journal of Asian Economics, v20, pp. 596-610, 2009.
Gagnon, Joseph E. and Andrew E. Rose, “Dynamic Persistence of Industry Trade Balances: How Pervasive is the Product Cycle?” Oxford Economic Papers, v. 47, pp. 229-248, 1995.
Fernald, John G., Hali Edison, and Prakash Loungani, “Was China the First Domino? Assessing Links Between China and the Rest of Emerging Asia,” Journal of International Money and Finance, v. 18:4, pp. 515-536, 1999.
Ferrantino, Michael, and Zhi Wang, “Accounting for Discrepancies in Bilateral trade: the Case of China, Hong Kong, And the United States.” USITC Working Paper No. 2007-04-A, April 2007.
IMF, “Changing Patterns of Global Trade,” Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, June 15, 2011.
James, W.E., and O. Movshuk, “Comparative Advantage in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan between 1980 and 1999: Testing for Convergence and Implications for Closer Economic Relations,” Developing Economies, 16 (3), 287-308, 2003.
Kaur, Inderjit N. Are the Geese Still Flying? Catch-up Industrialization in a Changing International Economic Environment. Pacific Rim Report No. 51, January 2009. Available online: http://usf.usfca.edu/pac_rim/new/research/pacrimreport/pacrimreport51.html
Krause, L.B., “The Structure of Trade in Manufactured Goods in the East and Southeast Asian Region,” in Bradford, Jr., C.I., Branson, W.H. Eds., Trade and Structural Change in Pacific Asia, NBER conference report. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1987.
Kwiatkowski, Denis, Peter C.B. Phillips, Peter Schmidt and Yongcheol Shin, “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure are We that Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?” Journal of Econometrics, 54, pp.159-178, 1992.
Lum, Thomas, and Dick K. Nanto, “China’s Trade with the United States and the World,” Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, RL31403, January 4, 2007.
Ng, Francis, and Alexander Yeats, “Major Trade Trends in East Asia: What Are Their Implications for Regional Cooperation and Growth?” World Bank Policy Research Paper, No. 3084, 2003.
World Bank, The East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy. Oxford University Press, New York, 1993.