Is shariah (islamic) stock price causally related to the macroeconomic variables ? Malaysian evidence

Khalit, Nafsiah and Masih, Mansur (2017): Is shariah (islamic) stock price causally related to the macroeconomic variables ? Malaysian evidence.

Abstract

This study attempts to discern the causal relationship between the macroeconomic variables and the Shariah (Islamic) stock price. The four macroeconomic variables chosen are industrial production, Malaysian ringgit vis-à-vis US dollars, money supply, and the consumer price index (CPI). This study uses the standard time series econometric techniques that apply tests of co-integration and LRSM to explain the theoretical relationship of the variables, as well as the VECM and VDC methods to explain the Granger-causal relations. The study further aims to compare its results with the findings from parallel study conducted on conventional stock market. This study found that there is a long-run theoretical co-integrating relationship among the variables being considered and that both Shariah stock price and the macroeconomic variables contain information to predict the variations in each other. However, intriguingly the findings in this study contradict the findings of the chosen conventional stock market research.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Shariah (Islamic) price, macroeconomic variables, VECM, VDC, Malaysia
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C58 - Financial Econometrics; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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