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Dette extérieure et croissance économique dans les pays à revenu intermédiaire : Essai empirique

Gharyeni, Abdellatif and Jouili, Mustapha (2015): Dette extérieure et croissance économique dans les pays à revenu intermédiaire : Essai empirique. Forthcoming in: érudit No. L'actualité économique, revue d'analyse économique

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Abstract

This article assesses one of the obstacles to economic growth in developing countries. It presents assessments that could improve their macroeconomic resilience in relation to external financing. Our objective is to examine the theory of over-indebtedness and to look for a threshold beyond which external debt can slow economic growth. Empirically, this article offers an assessment for a sample of 17 middle-income countries between 1980 and 2011. The results obtained after regressions on panel data highlight a non-linear correlation between external debt and economic growth. The threshold identified is close to 40% of GDP. Apart from the world economic situation, it remains sensitive to the evolution of certain macroeconomic aggregates. In the short term, this is the ratio of external debt to GDP, the weight of debt relative to the external balance of goods and services, and the ratio of debt service to exports of goods and services. In the medium to long term, these are the investment rate, the inflation rate, the population growth rate and the opening rate of the economy.

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