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Monetary policy, Uncertainty and COVID-19

Pinshi, Christian P. (2020): Monetary policy, Uncertainty and COVID-19. Published in: Journal of Applied Economic Sciences , Vol. XV, No. 3(69) (30 September 2020): pp. 579-593.

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The COVID-19 pandemic is influencing the management of monetary policy in its role as regulator of aggregate demand and guarantor of macroeconomic stability. We use a Bayesian VAR framework (BVAR) to provide an analysis of the COVID-19 uncertainty shock on the economy and monetary policy response. This analysis shows important conclusions. The uncertainty effect of COVID-19 hits unprecedented aggregate demand and the economy. In addition, it undermines monetary policy action to soften this fall in aggregate demand and curb inflation impacted by the exchange rate effect. We suggest a development of unconventional devices for a gradual recovery of the economy.

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