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GDP Forecast of the Biggest GCC Economies Using ARIMA

Youssef, Jamile and Ishker, Nermeen and Fakhreddine, Nour (2021): GDP Forecast of the Biggest GCC Economies Using ARIMA.

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Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members are considered one of the fastest growing economies. This paper aims to empirically forecast the economic activity of the vastest GCC countries: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. An Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARIMA) model for the three countries Gross Domestic Product is obtained using the Box-Jenkins methodology during the 1980 - 2020 period. The appropriate models for the three economies are of ARIMA (0,2,1), the forecasts are at a 95% confidence level and predicts a growth in the three countries for the upcoming five years.

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