GDP Forecast of the Biggest GCC Economies Using ARIMA

Youssef, Jamile and Ishker, Nermeen and Fakhreddine, Nour (2021): GDP Forecast of the Biggest GCC Economies Using ARIMA.

Abstract

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members are considered one of the fastest growing economies. This paper aims to empirically forecast the economic activity of the vastest GCC countries: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. An Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARIMA) model for the three countries Gross Domestic Product is obtained using the Box-Jenkins methodology during the 1980 - 2020 period. The appropriate models for the three economies are of ARIMA (0,2,1), the forecasts are at a 95% confidence level and predicts a growth in the three countries for the upcoming five years.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: ARIMA Model; GDP; forecasting; GCC
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O53 - Asia including Middle East

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