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Impacto del Stress Sistémico en el Crecimiento Económico: Caso Guatemala

Valdivia Coria, Joab Dan and Valdivia Coria, Daney David (2021): Impacto del Stress Sistémico en el Crecimiento Económico: Caso Guatemala.

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Abstract

Since financial crisis in 2008 and global health crisis COVID-19, systemic risk monitoring has become a relevant variable to anticipate possible credit crunch episodes. In this paper a Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS) was constructed for Guatemala, throughout recursive Panel Vector Autoregressive Regression (PVAR) adverse effects on the performance of the economy were estimated. Results shows that shocks in systemic risk generate a fall between 0.04pp and 0.05pp on economic growth with different persistence, when the CISS is at low or high stress levels, respectively.

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