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Are imports driven by exports or the other way around ?Thailand evidence

Sharabati, Yamen and Masih, Mansur (2017): Are imports driven by exports or the other way around ?Thailand evidence.

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This paper investigates the long run and causal relationship between exports and imports. In addition to the main variables, we include two other macroeconomic variables (exchange rate and money supply) in order to use them as control variables. Thailand is taken as a case study. The standard time series techniques are used for the analysis. The results tend to indicate that there is a long-run theoretical relationship between the variables as evidenced in their being cointegrated. The findings based on variance decompositions analysis suggest that imports are driven by exchange rate and followed by exports. In other words, imports tend to lead exports in the context of Thailand. The findings have strong policy implications for developing countries like Thailand.

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