Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Are you ready for change? Farsight for construction: Exploratory scenarios for Queensland’s construction industry to 2036

Quezada, George and Bratanova, Alexandra and Boughen, N and Hajkowicz, Stefan (2016): Are you ready for change? Farsight for construction: Exploratory scenarios for Queensland’s construction industry to 2036. Published in:

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The future of work and employment is a global hot topic with interconnected and powerful forces shaping jobs, industries and entire economies. Farsight, prepared in partnership with Construction Skills Queensland, examines the future of construction work in the state. Specifically, the report discusses critical trends and alternative scenarios for the future of Queensland’s construction workforce. Eighty leading experts across the state contributed to this future through a range of thinking and participation in interviews and workshops – where they considered what the industry could look like in 2036, and how job profiles and skills requirements might change to align with that future. A comprehensive scan of trends impacting the industry was undertaken, 25 of which are discussed in this report. This industry input and trends scan culminated in the development of four scenarios (Figure 1) that capture key areas of uncertainty and impact for jobs and skills in the industry. Each scenario is possible and takes the reader down an evidence-based journey about a plausible future. Because the future is not exact, there are multiple paths leading to multiple scenarios. Our scenarios describe a range of futures – some we would like to happen or others we would like to avoid. The aim in scenario planning is to be objective and inform decision-makers to identify, select and implement optimal strategies to achieve a better future – for all involved. Farsight was designed to help the industry understand what could happen in the future, and to identify what future(s) the industry wants and what steps could be taken to move toward desired futures. The scenarios were defined using a strategic foresight process that involves the identification of two spectrums that capture a range of plausible outcomes. The end points are extreme possibilities, with each relatively independent of the other. The outcomes of Farsight rests upon a set of trends compiled and synthesised by the research team. Crossing the axes defines the scenario space and the four scenarios which detail the tools we will need to keep stay nimble, relevant and effective in a global market

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