La résilience de l'économie sénégalaise : Quelles politiques publiques en réponses aux chocs exogènes?

Diagne, Youssoupha Sakrya and Thiam, Dame (2020): La résilience de l'économie sénégalaise : Quelles politiques publiques en réponses aux chocs exogènes? Published in: dpee.sn

Abstract

This paper aims at finding appropriate policies to help maintain long run growth performances in Senegal. Usual shocks suffered by the economy include rain shortfalls, surges in oil, food and raw materials prices. The economy is submitted to those adverse conditions using a multisector DSGE. Results show that a 36% decrease in rainfall would require 18% additional spending in agriculture. Furthermore, increasing public infrastructures in oil refinery by 83% would help overcome a 20% oil shock. Results also show a high sensitivity of the economy to changes in raw materials prices. Therefore, the paper recommends export diversification. Finally, a 4% regular increase of primary and secondary sectors’ Total Factor Productivity (TFP) would help reach a structural change of the economy.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Resillience of the senegalese economy; What policy responses to exogenous shocks?
• Language: French
• Keywords: resilience, DSGE, productivity, rainfall, world price, structural transformation
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E22 - Investment ; Capital ; Intangible Capital ; Capacity; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth ; Aggregate Productivity ; Cross-Country Output Convergence; P - Economic Systems > P1 - Capitalist Systems > P11 - Planning, Coordination, and Reform; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q2 - Renewable Resources and Conservation > Q25 - Water

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