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Economic Effects of Covid-19 and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: applying a SEIRD-RBC Model to Italy

Giuli, Francesco and Maugeri, Gabriele (2022): Economic Effects of Covid-19 and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: applying a SEIRD-RBC Model to Italy.

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Abstract

We study the economic effects generated by the proliferation of the Covid-19 epidemic and the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions by developing a SEIRD-RBC model, where the outbreak and policy interventions shape the labor input dynamic. We microfoundan Epidemic-Macro model grounded on the RBC tradition, useful for epidemic and economic analysis at business cycle frequency, which is able to reproduce the highly debated health-output trade-off. Assuming a positive approach, we show the potential of our model by matching the epidemic and macroeconomic empirical evidence of the Italian case.

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