The Stochastic Advance-Retreat Course: An Approach to Analyse Social-Economic Evolution

Feng, Dai and Yuan-Zheng, Zhong (2006): The Stochastic Advance-Retreat Course: An Approach to Analyse Social-Economic Evolution.

Abstract

The paper presents the basic theory and conceptual model for advance-retreat course and provides the analytic model the stochastic advance-retreat course and the solving method of it, discusses the relations between the endogenous resistance and subject interests increase with the periodic vibration in an advance-retreat course, gets some results, like heightening appropriately the risk-free interest rate will be favorable to subject interests’ increasing in stable, interests increasing in high-speed will result in the fast increase of resistance, the subject progress in a appropriate pace may bring the conclusion such as lasting interests increase and return with higher-level interests, etc. Finally, the empirical researches empirical, on data of USA GDP (chained) price index, has been made to the stochastic advance-retreat model, and the results show that the stochastic advance-retreat model can describe USA economic development process in recent 65 years.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Economic process; advance-retreat course; the basic theory; analytic model
• Subjects: O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C7 - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory > C73 - Stochastic and Dynamic Games ; Evolutionary Games ; Repeated Games; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods

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