الناتج القومي ومحدداته الاقتصادية الكلية - GDP and Its Macroeconomics Deteminants

Abdulrahman, Abdulrahman and Al-Ghawi, Omar and Al-Ghoul, Youssef (2025): الناتج القومي ومحدداته الاقتصادية الكلية - GDP and Its Macroeconomics Deteminants.

Abstract

This study empirically investigates the impact of real interest rate, inflation, net trade, and exchange rate on Egypt's real GDP over the period 1990–2024 using an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model. The results reveal that real interest rate and inflation have a statistically significant negative effect on GDP, reflecting the contractionary nature of tight monetary conditions and price instability. The exchange rate shows a positive effect on GDP, suggesting currency depreciation may boost exports. Net trade, surprisingly, exerts a negative effect, highlighting structural imbalances in Egypt’s trade composition. The findings confirm the relevance of traditional macroeconomic frameworks, IS–LM, AD-AS, and Mundell Fleming, while emphasizing the unique features of Egypt’s economy. The study contributes policy-relevant insights to macroeconomic management in developing economies.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: GDP and Its Macroeconomics Deteminants
• Language: English
• Keywords: Real GDP, Macroeconomics, Egypt, Interest Rate, Inflation, Exchange Rate, Net Trade, IS-LM, Mundell-Fleming, AD-AS, OLS Regression, Developing Economies
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics > C41 - Duration Analysis ; Optimal Timing Strategies; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology ; Computer Programs; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology ; Computer Programs > C82 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data ; Data Access; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology ; Computer Programs > C87 - Econometric Software; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E22 - Investment ; Capital ; Intangible Capital ; Capacity; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E63 - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Stabilization ; Treasury Policy

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