Magni, Carlo Alberto (2007): Investment decisions, equivalent risk and bounded rationality.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_13539.pdf Download (206kB) | Preview |
Abstract
The Net Present Value maximizing model shows fallacies and inconsistencies that may be easily unmasked by performing a cognitive analysis of the decision-making process implied by the maximization problem. The model may be conveniently rescued if the maximizing version of the criterion is shunt aside and a boundedly rational interpretation is given. The resulting ‘mixed strategy’, currently in use by many real-life decision makers, opens up terrain to a fruitful cooperation between bounded and unbounded rationality. This paper is consistent with a fluid and nondichotomous interpretation of dual-process theories.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Investment decisions, equivalent risk and bounded rationality |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Finance, Investment decisions, Net Present Value, heuristics, bounded rationality, cognition |
Subjects: | D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G11 - Portfolio Choice ; Investment Decisions B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B4 - Economic Methodology > B40 - General G - Financial Economics > G3 - Corporate Finance and Governance > G31 - Capital Budgeting ; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies ; Capacity A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics > A12 - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines M - Business Administration and Business Economics ; Marketing ; Accounting ; Personnel Economics > M2 - Business Economics > M20 - General G - Financial Economics > G3 - Corporate Finance and Governance > G30 - General |
Item ID: | 13539 |
Depositing User: | Carlo Alberto Magni |
Date Deposited: | 21 Feb 2009 16:15 |
Last Modified: | 29 Sep 2019 04:38 |
References: | Abel, A. B. (1990). Consumption and Investment. In B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (Eds.), Handbook of Monetary Economics. Amsterdam: North-Holland. Bierman, H. Jr. & Smidt, S. (1992). The Capital Budgeting Decision. MacMillan Company, eighth edition. Borges, B., Goldstein, D. G., Ortmann, A. & Gigerenzer, G. (1999). Can Ignorance Beat the Stock Market?. In Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart. See Gigerenzer, Todd & the ABC Research Group (1999). Borges, B., Goldstein, D. G., Ortmann, A. & Gigerenzer, G. (forthcoming). The Recognition Heuristic: A Fast and Frugal Way to Investment Choice? In Plott, C. R. & Smith, V. L. (Eds.), Handbook of experimental economics results. Amsterdam, Netherlands: Elsevier Press/North Holland. Brealey, R. & Myers, S. C. (2000). Principles of Corporate Finance, McGraw-Hill. Buchanan, J. (1969). Cost and Choice. An Inquiry in Economic Theory. Chicago: Markham. Republished as Midway reprint, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1977. Copeland, T. E., Koller, T., & Murrin, J. (2000). Valuation: Managing the Value of Companies, New York: John Wiley & Sons, third edition. Damodaran, A. (1999). Applied Corporate Finance: A User’s Manual. New York: Wiley. Dixit, A. & Pindyck, R. (1994). Investment under uncertainty, Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press. Evans, J. St. B. T. & Over, D. E. (1996). Rationality and Reasoning. Hove, England: Psychology Press. Evans, J. St. B. T. (2004). History of the dual process theory of reasoning. In K. Manktelow & M. C. Chung, (Eds.), Psychology of reasoning. New York, NY: Psychology Press. Fernández, P. (2002), Valuation Methods and Shareholders Value Creation, San Diego: Academic Press. Fisher, I. (1930). The Theory of Interest. New York: The Macmillan Company; (reprinted) Clifton, NJ: Augustum M. Kelley Publishers, 1974. Gigerenzer, G. (1996) On narrow norms and vague heuristics: A reply to Kahneman and Tversky. Psychological Review, 103, 650–669. Gigerenzer, G. (2000), Adaptive Thinking. Rationality in the Real World. Oxford University Press: New York, USA. Gigerenzer, G. (2001). The Adaptive Toolbox. In Bounded Rationality. See Gigerenzer & Selten (2001b). Gigerenzer, G. & Regier, T. (1996), How do we tell an association from a rule?. Psychological Bulletin, 119 (1), 23–26. Gigerenzer, G. & Selten, R. (2001a). Rethinking Rationality. In Bounded Rationality. See Gigerenzer & Selten (2001b). Gigerenzer, G. & Selten, R. (Eds.) (2001b), Bounded Rationality. The Adaptive Toolbox.The MIT Press: Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA Gigerenzer, G. & Todd, P. M. (1999). Fast and Frugal Heuristics: The Adaptive Toolbox. In Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart. See Gigerenzer, Todd, the ABC Research Group (1999). Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P. M. & the ABC Research Group (1999). Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart. New York: Oxford University Press Gilovich, T. & Griffin, D. (2002). Introduction – Heuristics and Biases: Then and Now. In Heuristics and Biases. See Gilovic, Griffin & Kahneman (2002). Gilovich, T., Griffin, D. & Kahneman, D. (Eds.) (2002). Heuristic and Biases. The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Goldstein, D. G. & Gigerenzer, G. (1999). The Recognition Heuristic: How Ignorance Make Us Smart. In Fast and Frugal Heuristics That Make Us Smart. See Gigerenzer, Todd & the ABC Research Group (1999). Goldstein, D. G. & Gigerenzer, G. (2002). Models of Ecological Rationality: The Recognition Heuristic. Psychological Review, 109 (1), 75–90. Goodie A. S., Ortmann, A., Davis, J. N., Bullock, S. & Werner, G. M. (1999). Demons Versus Heuristics in Artificial Intelligence, Behavioral Ecology, and Economics. In Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart. See Gigerenzer, Todd & the ABC Research Group (1999). Graham, J. & Harvey, C. (2001). The theory and practice of corporate finance: Evidence from the field. Journal of Financial Economics, 60, 187–243. Graham, J. & Harvey, C. (2002). How do CFOs make capital budgeting and capital structure decisions?. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 15 (1), 8–22. Jagannathan, R. & Meier, I. (2002). Do we need for Capital Budgeting?, Financial Management, 31 (4), 55–77. Internet version available on http://www.nber.org/papers/w8719. Jorgensen, D. (1963). Capital Theory and Investment Behavior. American Economic Review. 53, 247–259, May. Kahneman, D. & Frederick, S. (2002). Representativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution in Intuitive Judgment. In Heuristics and Biases. See Gilovic, Griffin & Kahneman (2002). Kahneman, D. & Miller, D. T. (1986), Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives, Psychological Review, 93 (2), 136–153. Kahneman. D., Slovic, P. & Tversky, A. (1982). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Kahneman. D. & Tversky, A. (1996). On the reality of cognitive illusions: A reply to Gigerenzer’s critique. Psychological Review, 103, 582–591. Laland, K. N. (2001). Imitation, Social Learning, and Preparedness as Mechanisms of Bounded Rationality. In Bounded Rationality. See Gigerenzer & Selten (2001b). Magni, C. A., Malagoli, S. & Mastroleo, G. (2007). An alternative approach to firms’ evaluation: expert systems and fuzzy logic. International Journal of Information Technology and Decision Making, 5(1), 195–224. Magni, C. A., Mastroleo, G., & Facchinetti, G. (2002). A Fuzzy Expert System for Solving Real Option Decision Processes. Fuzzy Economic Review, VI (2), 51–73. Magni, C. A., Mastroleo, G., Vignola, M. & Facchinetti, G. (2004), Strategic options and expert systems: a fruitful marriage. Soft Computing, 8 (3), 179–192, January. McDonald, R. L. (2000). Real Options and Rules of Thumb in Capital Budgeting, In M. J. Brennan & L. Trigeorgis (Eds.), Project flexibility, agency and competition: new developments in the theory and application of real options. New York: Oxford University Press. Miller, K.D. & Shapira Z. (2004). An empirical test of heuristics and biases affecting real option valuation. Strategic Management Journal, 25, 269–284. Monod, J. (1970). Le hasard et la nécessité. Essay sur la philosophie naturelle de la biologie moderne. Paris: Éditions du Seuil. Poterba, J. M. & Summers, L. H. (1995), A CEO survey of US companies’ time horizons and hurdles rates, Sloan Management Review, 37 (1), 43–53. Rao, R. (1992). Financial Management, MacMillan Publishing Company. Simon, H. (1955) A behavioral model of rational choice. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 69, 99–118. Simon, H. (1956) Rational choice and the structure of the environment. Psychological Review, 63, 129–138. Sloman, S. A. (1996a). The empirical case for two systems of reasoning. Psychological Bulletin, 119 (1), 3–22. Sloman, S. A. (1996b). The probative value of simultaneous contradictory belief: Reply to Gigerenzer & Regier (1996). Psychological Bulletin, 119 (1), 27–30. Sloman, S. A. (2002). Two Systems of Reasoning. In Heuristics and Biases. See Gilovich, Griffin & Kahneman (2002). Summers, L. H. (1987), Investment Incentives and the Discounting of Depreciation Allowances. In M. Feldstein (Ed.), The Effects of Taxation on Capital Accumulation. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Tobin, J. (1969). A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1, 15–29, February. Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1124–1131. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/13539 |
Available Versions of this Item
-
Investment decisions, equivalent risk and bounded rationality. (deposited 03 Dec 2007 18:38)
-
Investment decisions, net present value and bounded rationality. (deposited 05 Mar 2008 13:06)
- Investment decisions, equivalent risk and bounded rationality. (deposited 21 Feb 2009 16:15) [Currently Displayed]
-
Investment decisions, net present value and bounded rationality. (deposited 05 Mar 2008 13:06)