Krīzes un 2009. gada nodokļu politikas izmaiņu ietekme uz Latvijas ekonomiku

Skribans, Valerijs (2009): Krīzes un 2009. gada nodokļu politikas izmaiņu ietekme uz Latvijas ekonomiku. Published in: LU raksti No. 743. sējums (2009): pp. 189-200.

Abstract

The paper discusses the influence of the global economic crisis on the Latvian economy. Using the system dynamics approach and models produced beforehand, various development scenarios of tax policy, householder crediting, and the job market are analyzed. Produced models allow to obtain effective change data in line with new development tendencies to check various hypotheses. Model results show that an increase of the rate of the value added tax (VAT) will cause not only the increase of VAT volume but also, by way of feedback, a decline in consumption. The VAT and excise tax volumes planned in the beginning will diminish in case of declining consumption. The VAT rate increase will allow for a short-time increase in income from taxes, but it will not have a protracted effect. A similar situation is with the excise tax. The reduction of the income tax rate diminishes the volume of income tax and, simultaneously, fosters consumption, which in turn causes VAT, excise and income taxes to increase again. 30% cuts of salaries will impede householders to pay their credits and the interest rates without reducing their other expenditures. Nevertheless, such a large salary cut is unreal. Migration of labour force will introduce the average salary slightly below that of the salary minimum in the more developed European states into the Latvian labour market.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Influence of the Crisis and 2009 Tax Policy Changes on the Latvian Economy
• Language: Latvian
• Keywords: nodokļu politika, kredītslodze, darba alga, darbaspēka migrācija, sistēmdinamika
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E22 - Investment ; Capital ; Intangible Capital ; Capacity; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E21 - Consumption ; Saving ; Wealth; A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics > A10 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E27 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E24 - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational Income Distribution ; Aggregate Human Capital ; Aggregate Labor Productivity; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics > C40 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E00 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E20 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General > C01 - Econometrics

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