Los mercados de opinión pública

Estrada, Fernando (2010): Los mercados de opinión pública.

Abstract

This paper proposes a central idea in diffusion research is that influential –a minority of individuals who influence an exceptional number of their peers- are important to formation of public opinion. Here we examine this idea, which we call the “influential hypothesis”, using the experiments of Watts-Salganik-Dodds in computer simulation of interpersonal influence processes with the works of Herbert Simon in “Bounded Rationality”. Under most conditions that we consider, we find that large cascades of influence are driven not by influential, but by a critical mass of easily influenced individuals. Although our results do no exclude the possibility that influential can be important, they suggest that the influential hypothesis requires more careful specification and testing than it has received.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: The markets of public opinion
• Language: Spanish
• Keywords: Economics of Networks, Game Theory, Public Opinion, Mass Media, Information Systems, Social Methods
• Subjects: D - Microeconomics > D0 - General > D03 - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles; D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D70 - General; D - Microeconomics > D1 - Household Behavior and Family Economics > D11 - Consumer Economics: Theory; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C7 - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory > C70 - General; D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D85 - Network Formation and Analysis: Theory; B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B4 - Economic Methodology > B41 - Economic Methodology

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