Evaluating forecast uncertainty due to errors in estimated coefficients: empirical comparison of alternative methods

Bianchi, Carlo and Calzolari, Giorgio (1982): Evaluating forecast uncertainty due to errors in estimated coefficients: empirical comparison of alternative methods. Published in: Evaluating the reliability of macro-economic models No. Ed. by G.C.Chow and P.Corsi, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (1982): pp. 251-277.

Abstract

This paper is concerned with the contribution to forecast errors of errors in the estimated structural coefficients of a macro-econometric model (simultaneous equations). Its main purpose is to perform, on several "real-world" models, an empirical comparison of alternative techniques available in the literature for this purpose.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Forecast errors; coefficient estimation errors; Monte Carlo; simultaneous equation models
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C30 - General

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