Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Forecasting methods: a comparative analysis

Iqbal, Javed (2001): Forecasting methods: a comparative analysis. Published in: Proceedings Eighth Statistics Seminar , Vol. 8, (July 2001): pp. 189-197.


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Forecasting is an important tool for management, planning and administration in various fields. In this paper forecasting performance of different methods is considered using time series data of Pakistan's export to United Sates and money supply. It is found that, like other studies of this nature, no single forecasting method provides better forecast for both the series. The techniques considered are ARIMA, Regression Analysis, Vector Autoregression (VAR), Error Correction Model (ECM) and ARCH/GARCH models.

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