Calzolari, Giorgio and Bianchi, Carlo and Corsi, Paolo and Panattoni, Lorenzo (1982): Uncertainty of policy recommendations for nonlinear econometric models: some empirical results. Published in: paper presented at the 1982 Conference on Economic Dynamics and Control, "Decision Making Under Uncertainty", Washington DC: Federal Reserve Board, June 911. (9. June 1982): pp. 120.

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Abstract
A method for evaluating the reliability of policy recommendations derived from a linear dynamic structural econometric model in the framework of the linear quadratic control problem has been recently proposed by Friedmann (1980, 1981). The method analytically derives the asymptotic distribution of the estimated optimal policy and in particular the asymptotic standard errors of policy instruments, with respect to structural coefficients estimation errors. The use of analytic simulation and of Monte Carlo techniques allows to extend Friedmann's findings to medium and large size dynamic linear models and to nonlinear econometric models. Empirical results for some nonlinear models of national economies are reported in the paper.
Item Type:  MPRA Paper 

Original Title:  Uncertainty of policy recommendations for nonlinear econometric models: some empirical results 
Language:  English 
Keywords:  Nonlinear econometric models; optimal control; policy instruments; asymptotic standard errors 
Subjects:  C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6  Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C63  Computational Techniques ; Simulation Modeling C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3  Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables 
Item ID:  28846 
Depositing User:  Giorgio Calzolari 
Date Deposited:  15. Feb 2011 12:06 
Last Modified:  19. Feb 2013 11:08 
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URI:  https://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/id/eprint/28846 