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Kondratiev, Marx and the long cycle

Papageorgiou, Aris and Tsoulfidis, Lefteris (2006): Kondratiev, Marx and the long cycle. Published in: Indian Development Review , Vol. 4, No. 2 (11 December 2006)

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This paper begins with a critical presentation of Kondratiev’s (1926) seminal paper on the question of the existence as well as his theoretical explanation of long cyclical fluctuations of the level of economic activity. Furthermore we argue that a coherent explanation of long-run fluctuations can be based upon Marx’s argument in Capital III, whereby the falling long-run tendency of the rate of profit leads to a stagnant mass of net profits, which are associated with the onset of economic crisis. The paper concludes with a discussion of the similarities or differences and of the relative merits or weaknesses of Kondratiev’s and Marx’s views with respect to their visions of the long term evolution of the capitalist system.

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