The Golden Mean, the Arab Spring and a 10-step analysis of American economic history

Albers, Scott and Albers, Andrew L. (2011): The Golden Mean, the Arab Spring and a 10-step analysis of American economic history. Published in: The Middle East Studies Online Journal , Vol. 3, No. 6 (3 August 2011): pp. 199-253.

Abstract

The Long-Wave theories of Nikolai Kondratiev and others claim to find mathematic waves in economic and other social data which are at present in dispute. Currently the theory is considered outside the scope of mainstream economics under several rationales.

Despite the lack of mainstream acceptance, we make a strong case for the existence of long waves in the Real GNP of the United States with a 56 year cycle. Our analysis bypasses many of the issues cited by Long-Wave theory critics and in fact clarifies the mathematical structure of the theory.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Real GNP; Golden Mean; Fibonacci Series; Arab Spring; Phi; Long Wave; Long Cycle; Kondratiev Wave; Economic Forecasting; Economic Model; Global Financial Crisis; Constitutional Law; American Economic History; Revolution; Consolidation; GNP Spiral; Okun's Law; “The Great Moderation”
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General; B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B4 - Economic Methodology; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C19 - Other; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E01 - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth ; Environmental Accounts; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E27 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General > C02 - Mathematical Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E39 - Other; K - Law and Economics > K1 - Basic Areas of Law > K19 - Other; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles; N - Economic History > N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics ; Industrial Structure ; Growth ; Fluctuations; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E02 - Institutions and the Macroeconomy; K - Law and Economics > K0 - General; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics > A13 - Relation of Economics to Social Values; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E19 - Other; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E00 - General; B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B5 - Current Heterodox Approaches > B59 - Other; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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