Harashima, Taiji (2012): A Theory of Intelligence and Total Factor Productivity: Value Added Reflects the Fruits of Fluid Intelligence.
Download (782kB) | Preview
In this paper, a theory of total factor productivity (TFP) that incorporates a model of intelligence is formulated and described. In particular, the fluid intelligence of ordinary workers is emphasized as an important element in TFP because such workers have the intelligence to innovate, even though their innovations are minor. Nevertheless, these innovations are essential for production because they solve many small but unexpected problems that ordinary workers must address. The TFP model is based on item response theory, which is widely used in psychology and psychometrics. TFP is assumed to be an increasing function of ordinary workers’ fluid intelligence, without which production is virtually impossible. Therefore, the model suggests that TFP is derived from the fruits of human intelligence.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||A Theory of Intelligence and Total Factor Productivity: Value Added Reflects the Fruits of Fluid Intelligence|
|Keywords:||Total factor productivity; Intelligence; Innovation; Item response theory; Experience curve effect|
|Subjects:||O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth ; Aggregate Productivity ; Cross-Country Output Convergence
O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O15 - Human Resources ; Human Development ; Income Distribution ; Migration
O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O2 - Development Planning and Policy > O20 - General
O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Innovation ; Research and Development ; Technological Change ; Intellectual Property Rights > O31 - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
D - Microeconomics > D2 - Production and Organizations > D24 - Production ; Cost ; Capital ; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity ; Capacity
|Depositing User:||Taiji Harashima|
|Date Deposited:||07. Dec 2012 19:23|
|Last Modified:||25. Nov 2015 13:02|
Abramovitz, Moses. (1986) “Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind,” Journal of Economic History, Vol. 46, No. 2, pp. 385-406.
Adler, Paul S. and Kim B. Clark. (1991) “Behind the Learning Curve: A Sketch of the Learning Process,” Management Science, Vol. 37, No. 3, pp. 267-281.
Alchian, Armen A., (1963) “Reliability of Progress Curves in Airframe Production,” Econometrica, Vol. 31, No. 4, pp. 679–693.
Argote, Linda, Sara L. Beckman and Dennis Epple. (1990): “The Persistence and Transfer of Learning in Industrial Settings,” Management Science, Vol. 36, No. 2, pp. 140-154.
Argote, Linda and Dennis Epple. (1990) “Learning Curves in Manufacturing,” Science, Vol. 247, No. 4945, pp. 920-924.
Argote, Linda, Bill McEvily and Ray Reagans. (2003) “Managing Knowledge in Organizations: An Integrative Framework and Review of Emerging Themes,” Management Science, Vol. 49, No. 4, pp. 571–582.
Arrow, Kenneth J. (1962) “The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing,” Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 29, No. 3, pp. 155–173.
Asher, Harold. (1956) Cost-Quantity Relationships in the Airframe Industry, Report 291, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Ca.
Ayres, Robert U. and Katalin Martinas. (1992), “Experience and Life Cycle: Some Analytical Implications”, Technovation, Vol. 12, No. 7, pp. 465-486.
Baldwin, Carliss, Christoph Hienerth and Eric von Hippel. (2006) “How User Innovations Become Commercial Products: A Theoretical Investigation and Case Study,” Research Policy, Vol. 35, No. 9, pp. 1291-1313.
Barro, Robert J. (1991) “Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 106, No. 2, pp. 407-43.
Baumol, William J. (1986) “Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show,” American Economic Review, Vol. 76, No. 5, pp. 1072-85.
Becker, Gary S. (1962) “Investment in Human Capital: A Theoretical Analysis,” The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 70, No. 5, pp. 9-49.
Becker, Gary S. (1964) Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, Columbia University Press, New York.
Benhabib, Jess and Mark M. Spiegel, (1994) “The Role of Human Capital in Economic Development: Evidence from Aggregate Cross-Country Data,” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 34, No. 2, pp. 143-173.
Bernard, Andrew B. and Steven N. Durlauf. (1995) “Convergence in International Output,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 97-108.
Boston Consulting Group (BCG) (1972) Perspectives on Experience, Boston, Mass.
Carpenter, Patricia A., Marcel Adam Just and Peter Shell. (1990) “What One Intelligence Test Measures: A Theoretical Account of the Processing in the Raven Progressive Matrices Test,” Psychological Review, Vol. 97, No. 3, pp. 404–431.
Cattell, Raymond Bernard. (1963) “Theory of Fluid and Crystallized Intelligence: A Critical Experiment,” Journal of Educational Psychology, Vo. 54, pp. 1-22.
Cattell, Raymond Bernard. (1971) Abilities: Their structure, growth, and action, Houghton Mifflin, Boston.
Cheung, Yin-Wong and Antonio Garcia-Pascual. (2004) “Testing for Output Convergence: A Re-examination,” Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 56, No. 1, pp. 45-63.
Criqui, Patrick, Jean-Marie Martin, Leo Schrattenholzer, Tom Kram, Luc Soete and Adriaan Van Zon.. (2000) “Energy Technology Dynamics,” International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Vol. 14, No. 1-4, pp. 65-103.
Dudley, Leonard. (1972) “Learning and Productivity Changes in Metal Products,” American Economic Review, Vol. 62, No. 4, pp. 662-69.
Dutton, John M. and Annie Thomas. (1984) “Treating Progress Functions as a Managerial Opportunity,” Academy of Management Review, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 235-247.
Growiec, Jakub (2008) “A New Class of Production Functions and an Argument Against Purely Labor-Augmenting Technical Change,” International Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 4, No. 4, pp. 483-502.
Hall, Graham and Sydney Howell. (1985) “The Experience Curve from the Economist's Perspective,” Strategic Management Journal, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 197-212.
Harashima, Taiji. (2009) “A Theory of Total Factor Productivity and the Convergence Hypothesis: Workers’ Innovations as an Essential Element,” MPRA (The Munich Personal RePEc Archive) Paper, No. 15508.
Harashima, Taiji. (2011)“A Model of Total Factor Productivity Built on Hayek’s View of Knowledge: What Really Went Wrong with Socialist Planned Economies?” MPRA (The Munich Personal RePEc Archive) Paper, No. 29107
Hirsch, Werner Z. (1952) “Manufacturing Progress Functions,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 34, No. 2, pp. 143-155.
Hirsch, Werner Z. (1956) “Firm Progress Ratios,” Econometrica, Vol. 24, No. 2, pp. 136-143.
Hollander, Samuel. (2003) The Sources of Increased Efficiency: A Study of DuPont Rayon Plants, MIT Press, Cambridge.
Jones, Charles I. (2005) “The Shape of Production Functions and the Direction of Technical Change,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 120, No. 2, pp. 517-549.
Joskow, Paul L. and George A. Rozanski. (1979) “The Effects of Learning by Doing on Nuclear Plant Operating Reliability,” Review of Economics & Statistics, Vol. 61, No. 2, pp. 161-68.
Krueger, Alan B. and Mikael Lindahl. (2001) “Education for Growth: Why and for Whom?” Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 39, No. 4, pp. 1101–1136.
Lazear, Edward P. (2003) “Firm-Specific Human Capital: A Skill-Weights Approach,” NBER Working Paper, No. 9679.
Lee, Samson S., John C. Dugger and Joseph C. Chen. (1999) “Kaizen: An Essential Tool for Inclusion in. Industrial Technology Curricula,” Journal of Industrial Technology, Vol. 16, No. 1.
Lieberman, Marvin B. (1984) “The Learning Curve and Pricing in the Chemical Processing Industries,” The RAND Journal of Economics, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 213-228.
Lieberman, Marvin B. (1987) “The Learning Curve, Diffusion, and Competitive Strategy,” Strategic Management Journal, Vol. 8, No. 5, pp. 441-452.
Lord, Frederic M. and Melvin R. Novick. (1968) Statistical Theories of Mental Test Scores, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA.
Lovett, Andrew, Kenneth Forbus and Jeffery Usher. (2007) “Analogy with Qualitative Spatial Representations Can Simulate Solving Raven’s Progressive Matrices,” in Proceedings from the 29th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, pp. 449-454, Cognitive Science Society, Nashville, TN.
Lucas, Robert E. Jr. (1990) “Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?” American Economic Review, Vol. 80, No.2, pp. 92-96.
Luecke, Richard and Ralph Katz (2003). Managing Creativity and Innovation, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA.
Lynch, Lisa. (1991) “The Role of Off-the-Job Vs. On-the-Job Training for the Mobility of Women Workers,” American Economic Review, Vo. 81, No. 2, pp. 151-156.
Mankiw, N Gregory, David Romer and David N. Weil. (1992) “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 107, No. 2, pp. 407-37
Marshalek, Brachia, David F. Lohman and Richard E. Snow. (1983) “The Complexity Continuum in the Radex and Hierarchical Models of Intelligence,” Intelligence, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 107-127.
McDonald, Alan. and Leo Schrattenholzer. (2001) “Learning Rates for Energy Technologies,” Energy Policy, Vol. 29, No. 4, pp. 255-261.
McGreggor, Keith, Maithillee, Kunda and Ashok Goel. (2010) “A Fractal Analogy Approach to the Raven’s Test of Intelligence,” in AAAI workshops at the 24th AAAI conference on Artificial Intelligence, pp. 69–75, Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence, Atlanta.
Michelacci, Claudio and Paolo Zaffaroni. (2000) “(Fractional) Beta Convergence,” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 45, No. 1, pp. 129-153.
Miketa, Asami and Leo Schrattenholzer. (2004) “Experiments with a Methodology to Model the Role of R&D Expenditures in Energy Technology Learning Processes; First Results,” Energy Policy, Vol. 32, pp. 1679–1692.
Mincer, Jacob. (1958) “Investment in Human Capital and Personal Income Distribution,” The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 6, No. 4, pp. 281-302.
Nemet, Gregory F. (2006) “Beyond the Learning Curve: Factors Influencing Cost Reductions in Photovoltaics,” Energy Policy, Vol. 34, No.17, pp. 3218-3232.
OECD/IEA (2000) Experience Curves for Energy Technology Policy, The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Paris, France.
Papineau, Maya. (2006) “An Economic Perspective on Experience Curves and Dynamic Economies in Renewable Energy Technologies,” Energy Policy, Vol. 34, No. 4, pp. 422-432.
Pisano, Gary P., Richard M.J. Bohmer and Amy C. Edmondson. (2001) “Organizational Differences in Rates of Learning: Evidence from the Adoption of Minimal Invasive Cardiac Surgery,” Management Science, Vol. 47, No. 6, pp. 752-768.
Prescott, Edward C. (1998) “Needed: A Theory of Total Factor Productivity,” International Economic Review, Vol. 39, No. 3, pp. 525-51.
Preston, Lee E. and E. C. Keachie. (1964) “Cost Functions and Progress Functions: An Integration,” American Economic Review, Vol. 54, No. 2, pp. 100-107.
Rapping, Leonard. (1965) “Learning and World War II Production Functions,” The Review of Economic Statistics, Vol. 47, No. 1, pp. 81–86.
Raven, John Carlyle. (1962). Advanced Progressive Matrices: Sets I and II, H. K. Lewis, London.
Raven, J., John Carlyle Raven and J. H. Court, (1998) Manual for Raven’s Progressive Matrices and Vocabulary Scales. Section 1: General overview. Harcourt Assessment, San Antonio, TX.
Reis, Dayr A. (1991) “Learning Curves in Food Services,“ The Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 42, No. 8, pp. 623-629.
Romer, Paul Michael. (1986) “Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 94, No. 5, pp. 1002-37.
Romer, Paul Michael. (1987) “Growth Based on Increasing Returns Due to Specialization,” American Economic Review, Vol. 77, No. 2, pp. 56-62.
Searle, Allan D. and C. S. Goody. (1945) “Productivity Increases in Selected Wartime Shipbuilding Programs,” Monthly Labor Review, Vol. 61, No. 6, pp. 1132-1147.
Sheshinski, Eytan. (1967) “Tests of the ‘Learning by Doing’ Hypothesis,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 49, No. 4. pp. 568-578.
Snow, Richard E., Patrick C. Kyllonen and Brachia Marshalek. (1984) “The Topography of Ability and Learning Correlations,” in Sternberg, Robert J. ed. Advances in the Psychology of Human Intelligence Vol. 2, Erlbaum, Hillsdale, NJ:
Sorenson, Olav. (2003) “Interdependence and Adaptability: Organizational Learning and the Longterm Effect of Integration,” Management Science, Vol. 49, No. 4, pp. 446-463.
Stobaugh, Robert B. and Phillip. L. Townsend. (1975) “Price Forecasting and Strategic Planning: The Case of Petrochemicals,” Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. 12, pp. 19-29.
Sultan, Ralph G. (1976) Pricing in the Electrical Oligopoly, Vol. 2: Business Strategy, Division of Research, Graduate School of Business Administration, Harvard University.
van der Linden, Wim J. and Ronald K. Hambleton. (Eds.) (1997) Handbook of Modern Item Response Theory, Springer-Verlag, New York.
van der Zwaan, Bob and Ari Rablc. (2003) “Prospects for PV: A Learning Curve Analysis,” Solar Energy, Vol. 74, No. 1, pp. 19–31.
van der Zwaan, Bob and Ari Rablc. (2004) “The Learning Potential of Photovoltaics: Implications for Energy Policy,” Energy Policy, Vol. 32, No. 13, pp. 1545–1554.
Weisbroad, Burton A. (1966) “Investing in Human Capital,” The Journal of Human Resources, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 5-21.
Wiersma, Eelke. (2007) “Conditions That Shape the Learning Curve: Factors That Increase the Ability and Opportunity to Learn,” Management Science, Vol. 53, No. 12, pp. 1903-1915.
Williams, Robert H. and Terzian, G. (1993), “A Benefit/Cost Analysis of. Accelerated Development of Photovoltaic Technology,” PU/CEES Report No. 281, Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Princeton University, NJ.
Womer, Norman Keith. (1984) “Estimating Learning Curves from Aggregate Monthly Data,” Management Science, Vol. 30, No. 8, pp. 982-992.
Womer, Norman Keith and J. Wayne Patterson. (1983) “Estimation and Testing of Learning Curves,” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Vol. 1, No. 4, pp. 265-272.
Wright, Theodore Paul. (1936) “Factors Affecting the Cost of Airplanes,” Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, Vol. 3, No. 4, pp. 122-128.
Yelle, Louis E. (1979) “The Learning Curve: Historical Review and Comprehensive Survey,” Decision Sciences, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 302-328.
Zimmerman, Martin B. (1982) “Learning Effects and the Commercialization of New Energy Technologies: The Case of Nuclear Power,” Bell Journal of Economics, Vol. 13, No. 2, pp. 297-310.