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Cyclical Dynamics in Idiosyncratic Labor-Market Risks: Evidence From March CPS 1968-2011

zhao, bo (2013): Cyclical Dynamics in Idiosyncratic Labor-Market Risks: Evidence From March CPS 1968-2011.

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Abstract

The paper estimates the household labor earning process using the March Current Population Survey 1968-2011. GMM estimates confirm that the results in Storesletten et al. (2004} still hold in a much larger data set over a longer period. The persistent idiosyncratic risk is strongly countercyclical, with an annual auto-correlation equal to .973 and an standard deviation that increases by 72.5 percent (from .090 to .156) as the macroeconomy moves from peak to trough.

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