Munich Personal RePEc Archive

A Search for Business Cycles with Spectral Analysis

Dale, Charles (1984): A Search for Business Cycles with Spectral Analysis. Published in: American Statistical Association, Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (14 August 1984): pp. 267-272.


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There has been considerable debate in recent years about whether well-defined business cycles even exist. At one extreme are those who assert that so-called business cycles are caused by exogenous shocks. At the other extreme are those who believe that business cycles may be endogenous, i.e., the economy has a natural tendency to go through periods of recession and depression. We used spectral analysis to search for business cycles, but we did not find any clear evidence of their existence.

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