Un Test sulle Ipotesi delle Proiezioni a medio-lungo termine della Spesa Sanitaria

Salerno, Nicola Carmine (2013): Un Test sulle Ipotesi delle Proiezioni a medio-lungo termine della Spesa Sanitaria.

Abstract

The same methodology Oecd and Ecofin apply to project future trends of health care expenditue is here applied to reconstruct backwards Italian health care expenditure. The time horizon is 1988-2012. Results are described and argued. Important evidence emerges on the historical value of the elasticity of per-capita expenditure to per-capita Gdp. This value, of course, brings also some information on what this elasticity can prove in the future. It is the first test developed on past trends using profiles of per-capita expenditure per age brackets, and applied to Italy.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Testing Hypotheses at the basis of medium-long term Projections of Health Care Expenditure
• Language: Italian
• Keywords: health care, projections, halth care projections, medium-long term, Oecd, Awg, Ecofin, Imf, International Monetary Fund, Ageing Working Group, Ageing Report, European Commission, sustainability, public finances, elasticity, Gdp, per-capita expenditue, per-capita Gdp, historical trends, welfare system, pay-as-you-go, age brackets, Europan Economy, Italy, nicola c. alerno, nicola salerno, nc salerno, salerno nc, [e-mail], nicolacsalerno
• Subjects: H - Public Economics > H0 - General > H00 - General; H - Public Economics > H4 - Publicly Provided Goods; H - Public Economics > H4 - Publicly Provided Goods > H40 - General; H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies; H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies > H51 - Government Expenditures and Health; H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies > H54 - Infrastructures ; Other Public Investment and Capital Stock; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I0 - General; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I0 - General > I00 - General; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I10 - General; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I18 - Government Policy ; Regulation ; Public Health; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I3 - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty > I31 - General Welfare, Well-Being; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J14 - Economics of the Elderly ; Economics of the Handicapped ; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

References

Ageing Report; Ageing Working Group, various edition [http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/2012/2012-ageing-report_en.htm]

Public Spending on Health Care, a new set of Projections; Oecd [http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/download/5k44t7jwwr9x.pdf?expires=1380970212&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=FD416696B51863EE4D6FA0EC4941615F]

Projecting Health Care and Long Term Care Expenditure: What are the main drivers?; Oecd [http://www.oecd.org/tax/public-finance/36085940.pdf]