Real vs. Nominal Cycles: A Multistate Markov-Switching Bi-Factor Approach

Leiva-Leon, Danilo (2013): Real vs. Nominal Cycles: A Multistate Markov-Switching Bi-Factor Approach. Forthcoming in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics

Abstract

This paper proposes a probabilistic model based on comovements and nonlinearities useful to assess the type of shock affecting each phase of the business cycle. By providing simultaneous inferences on the phases of real activity and inflation cycles, contractionary episodes are dated and categorized into demand, supply and mix recessions. The impact of shocks originated in the housing market over the business cycle is also assessed, finding that recessions are usually accompanied by housing deflationary pressures, while expansions are mainly influenced by housing demand shocks, with the only exception occurred during the period surrounding the "Great Recession," affected by expansionary housing supply shocks.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Business Cycles, Inflation Cycles, Housing Price Cycles, Dynamics Factors, Markov-Switching.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E27 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles

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