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Non-linear effects of the U.S. Monetary Policy in the Long Run

Olmos, Lorena and Sanso Frago, Marcos (2014): Non-linear effects of the U.S. Monetary Policy in the Long Run.

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Abstract

We find non-linearities in the U.S. long-run relationships among trend inflation, growth rate and financial frictions. Moreover, our results show that mismeasurements of the natural rate of interest deviate the trend inflation from its target, which is especially clear when monetary policy reacts preventively against inflation deviations. The long-run growth rate, the trend inflation and the natural rate of interest, specified as time-varying, are jointly estimated over the period 1960:Q1-2013:Q2 by applying the Kalman filter, following mainly Laubach and Williams (2003).

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